Mostly nonsense but there is one very valid point at the end

Story: Linux-Windows gap to remain for five yearsTotal Replies: 10
Author Content
caitlyn

Oct 14, 2009
4:01 PM EDT
This "analysis" contains the usual misconceptions and Microsoft shillery. Having to choose between two desktops is a bad thing and confusing. Since when? Being locked in is supposed to be good now? I don't think so. The analysis of netbooks also faisl to note the strong arm tactics Microsoft used with some vendors, notably Asus.

There are two valid points amid all the nonsense: Retailers are untrained and clueless about Linux. That's certainly true even if it applies to the author as well. The final point, the one that really hits home, is that Linux' main problem competing with Microsoft is inertia. People (and companies) are resistant to change.

Of course, I odn't buy the conclusion that in five years Linux won't advance against Windows. Windows doesn't dominate server space (never has) and Linux has been making incremental gains on the desktop for years. Progress is slow but the situation is far from static. The continued availability of preloaded Linux boxes from major hardware vendors (i.e. HP and Dell), something we didn't have two years ago, should speed that progress at least a little.
bigg

Oct 14, 2009
4:13 PM EDT
I would not be surprised if the gap were closed within five years. Most of the technically-oriented youngsters I encounter know Linux - at least they like to say they've run Ubuntu, which makes them one of the cool nerds. They're the ones that support the Windows desktop, and they're the ones who tell others what to buy.

It's true that Joe Sixpack doesn't know anything about Linux. But Joe Sixpack doesn't know anything about Windows either. When Joe Sixpack's nerd son tells him to install Linux, he will. There's nothing more difficult about using Linux than using Windows. It's a matter of whatever is in front of you. If something doesn't work and you know who to call for free support, you don't care if you're using Linux.
Steven_Rosenber

Oct 14, 2009
4:25 PM EDT
Observation #1: Microsoft Office formats become increasingly irrelevant as more work is done on and for the Web (meaning both MS Office and analogs such as OpenOffice will be less important than they are today and much less important then they were a few years ago)

Observation #2: Much will depend on the state of proprietary multimedia, principally Flash. If open video formats make any kind of inroad, that's a win for FOSS and Linux. Otherwise poor performance of Flash players will hurt. Move to H.264: impact uncertain (to me, anyway). Does hardware acceleration of this format work in Linux? Can/should it?

Observation #3: A few huge enterprise adoptions of DESKTOP Linux can create momentum. But is anybody in the enterprise actually doing this?

Obsevation #4: Are any distributions besides Ubuntu really making a play on the desktop? (I mean beyond the usual fanboy circles who are already using Linux.) The only way to move the needle: preloads.
dinotrac

Oct 14, 2009
4:31 PM EDT
bigg -

Don't think I've ever met this Joe SixPack character, but I have met lots of working folks.

Most will listen to advice because they know they are not computer pros, but you need a reason -- even Joe's son needs a reason -- to get them to switch to something like listening.

It's not so bad if they just do a few things -- surf the net (unless, of course, they use Netflix on demand movies), send e-mail, etc, but...

They will want familiar apps if they do other things. Apps are where people spend their time, not the OS.
tracyanne

Oct 14, 2009
4:41 PM EDT
Quoting:Don't think I've ever met this Joe SixPack character,


Well I know a Joe Seis-Blocos, does that qualify?
jdixon

Oct 14, 2009
4:43 PM EDT
> A few huge enterprise adoptions of DESKTOP Linux can create momentum. But is anybody in the enterprise actually doing this?

Huge enterprises? Not that I know of. I believe a number of smaller ones have. What you're seeing in some of the larger enterprises is the switching of certain specific user segments, and only when it makes business sense. From what I've been hearing, that's ongoing at a number of places. If those deployments work out, you'll see more such specific segment switches in the future, and the number of segments will begin to grow. It's a slow process, but it's well underway.
tracyanne

Oct 14, 2009
4:52 PM EDT
Well actually I don't, but it sounds good.
bigg

Oct 14, 2009
4:59 PM EDT
> They will want familiar apps if they do other things.

Some are clearly locked in to apps for work or for play. Most of the Windows users I encounter are able to get around those problems though. Some are able to use their office computer remotely. Some do their work at home using OpenOffice and then copy and paste into Word at the office. I've actually seen that a fair amount even for those using Windows - there's no reason to spend money on MS Office when OOo is free and does what they need.

I don't see the "no possibility of using Linux" very often, because most people I know have easy access to Windows when they need it, whether dual boot, Virtualbox, or using a different machine. My sample might be small, of course.

My mother is a good example of the reason to switch. She knows she doesn't know enough about computer security to use Windows, and she's scared to use Windows. I installed Linux Mint and she figured out how to use it herself. Some of her work documents need to be done in Word format, so she uses a USB drive and does copy/paste the next day.
Sander_Marechal

Oct 14, 2009
5:03 PM EDT
Quoting:Move to H.264: impact uncertain (to me, anyway). Does hardware acceleration of this format work in Linux? Can/should it?


It works on some video cards. It will work in many more. It will even work on cards that don't have a H.264 chip because they are busy implementing them as shaders, so any card with programmable shaders can do it. That means H.264 support on Linux will be better than on Windows if you have older hardware :-)

Quoting:A few huge enterprise adoptions of DESKTOP Linux can create momentum. But is anybody in the enterprise actually doing this?


Some, but not across all departments. It's much better with government, semi-government and NGO's though. Big moves to Linux like Belgium, France and Germany.

Quoting:Are any distributions besides Ubuntu really making a play on the desktop?


What desktop? Enterprise or regular end-users? I hardly see anyone building the channel for end-user (except Canonical) but there are other players in the enterprise desktop, like Suse and Mandriva. I do believe Mandriva is shipping on some netbooks for the 3rd world though.
caitlyn

Oct 15, 2009
2:57 AM EDT
When I consulted for Red Hat I did see some very large clients who used RHEL on the desktop, but it was on a department-by-department basis, not enterprise-wide. Red Hat does sell a desktop products, but usually only to customers who use RHEL in the server room already and want a single standard. I honestly think there are more polished choices with larger package selections for the enterprise desktop, with SLED, Mandriva and Ubuntu probably leading the way.
hkwint

Oct 15, 2009
7:15 AM EDT
Quoting:A few huge enterprise adoptions of DESKTOP Linux can create momentum. But is anybody in the enterprise actually doing this?


LXer has a red bar on top of it, and the third word in the red bar is a link called 'migrations'. It dates back of the time when it was 'news' if some company or government switched to Linux (not anymore). There are several big enterprises in that list. Especially some in India, one in Germany (LVM), South Korea and Russia (if Russian post qualifies as 'enterprise').

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