Jim Zemlin, the executive director of the Linux Foundation, is one of the platform's most vocal cheerleaders. He never misses an opportunity to point out that many important emerging trends in the technology industry are contributing to Linux growth and adoption. During his keynote address at the recent Maemo Summit in Amsterdam, he suggested that the trend towards mobile convergence is favorable for the open source software operating system.
As netbooks and smartphones redefine the boundaries of computing, he argues, Linux will take on even greater importance. Although he says it's not clear what kind of form factors will dominate when the dust settles, he's convinced that Linux will become the dominant platform of the transforming mobile and embedded ecosystem. Thanks to greater flexibility, freedom from lock-in, and lack of licensing costs, he believes that Linux "enables consumer electronics like no other platform."
Indeed, the Linux platform has risen to prominence in the consumer electronics market and provides the underlying foundation of countless mainstream products including set-top boxes, ebook readers, and mobile phones. An important question, however, is whether this success is sustainable. The platform will only advance if commercial adopters participate in the collaborative effort to move it forward. Zemlin believes that the economics of open source adoption will eventually compel adopters to contribute.
It's simply too costly to maintain custom forks, he argues, so companies will have to collaborate and engage in upstream development in order to use open source effectively. In the long run, he's convinced that more users will lead to more contributors. This network effect will accelerate open source development and lead to a more vibrant community. "After companies start using open source, it may take a while, but I guarantee you that they will always give back."
Indeed, some of the biggest stakeholders in the mobile industry have become prolific contributors. Companies like Nokia and Intel and are committing significant resources to improve open source technologies. Their efforts help them to fulfill their own business goals but also indirectly aid other contributors and directly benefit the broader desktop stack. Zemlin comments that this kind of cross-pollination is one of the strengths of Linux. The key is to get more companies on board and help them recognize the benefits of participating at a high level.
Licensing plays an important role in ensuring the ongoing resilience of the kernel. Zemlin declares that the GPL has won and points out that even Microsoft is actively contributing code to the kernel under that license. This is a sign that even the Linux platform's fiercest competitors can participate meaningfully in cases where it's mutually advantageous. This is partly due to the license's copyleft provisions and partly due to the intrinsic benefits of direct upstream involvement.
One of Zemlin's most speculative assertions during his keynote was that the hardware market is evolving in a way that will soon make devices available at no cost, subsidized entirely by alternate business models. He says that the trend towards subsidized hardware will become ubiquitous within two years and that Linux will benefit. Mobile carriers and Internet service providers are part of the value chain now, he says, and they have the power to completely change the economics of hardware. This seems like an expansion of some of his previous ideas about the potential for Web and content service to bring down the cost of netbooks.
Although we find his argument is intriguing, it seems like an overly optimistic assessment of cost and the potential for boosting Linux adoption. Carrier subsidized hardware is absolutely a growing a trend, but it's not all taking the form that Zemlin suggests. For example, Nokia's Booklet 3G will still cost nearly $300 (a lot more than $0) even after the carrier subsidy, and the device is shipping with Windows, not Linux. It's evident that Linux is gaining ground in the netbook market and possibly represents a third of all netbooks sold, but there is no reason to believe that carriers can't or won't use Windows on subsidized devices.
Although we're still a bit skeptical about his prophecy of ubiquitous subsidized Linux devices within two years, I think that much of what he says makes a lot of sense. We are already seeing Linux arrive in a major way on consumer electronics devices and it is having a very real impact on the way that such devices are developed. His point about upstream involvement is also compelling. A lot of new companies are coming to the table and getting involved with Linux development. It's likely that such collaboration will continue to grow as more companies embrace the open source operating system.
Listing image by Tribbles image
reader comments
56