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The Tablet Dead End Is Dead Ahead

Tablets are not the end-all, be-all of computing and eventually the laptop will take over. Again.

April 30, 2014
Laptops vs Tablets

With sales of tablets falling, the so-called "experts" are now re-evaluating predictions about tablets taking over the computing market. It never made sense in the first place.

All eyes are on the market share leader, Apple, whose iPad sales fell 16 percent during the first quarter. Some of this has to do with customers moving to Android tablets, but a downward trend is clear. The Microsoft Surface also took a beating.

The rationale is that, whatever a tablet is good for, it's never going to be replaced. Once the market saturates, the replacement cycle is long and slow. Unlike on PCs, there are no tablet apps that are so powerful they need more horsepower. Most users simply use them to read content or play games.

Insofar as a fashion item, there is not much you can do design-wise to a tablet to encourage an upgrade. There are no real design elements. It's just a slab of glass.

Opinions I don't use mine for much more than Angry Birds. I actually have two tablets, not including a Kindle Paperwhite ebook reader. I have a rather glamorous Acer Iconia Tab, which weighs a ton but is very jazzy. I also have a Google Nexus 7, which I literally lost in the house. It's on a bookshelf, behind some boxes, in a drawer. Who knows where it is? I don't care enough to make an effort to find it. To me that says it all.

When (decent) tablets first came out, they were under the direct influence of the Steve Jobs magic and everyone clamored for one. To me they seemed like an unnecessary expense. But I was all ears regarding the usefulness people found for the devices.

They became a good way to pass the time away on an airplane. People raved about how great they were on a long flight. You could watch videos, play solitaire, or read. On many long flights you will see bunches of tablets in use.

I still use a laptop for this activity—an ultrabook. However, laptops on cramped flights are inconvenient and the tablet is superior except for the fact that you have to hold it for the whole flight.

When the iPad was first released, one of the early concepts fell by the wayside immediately: eliminating the need for a travelling businessperson to take a heavier laptop on the road. But almost everyone who bought into the tablet pitch admitted that they take the tablet and the laptop. It actually adds to their burden.

Another perceived use was for photographs. But people who use a tablet for taking pictures look like idiots.

Microsoft bridged the gap with the Surface, but nobody could seriously accept its rubber keyboard. It's a creative idea, but it is still a rubber keyboard.

The obvious solution to the drawbacks are the pricey convertible machines, essentially laptops with a removable or flip-around touch screen. This sort of thing predates the iPad by a decade or more. These are expensive compromises for people who absolutely must have tablet functionality with a real keyboard.

This development reversed the tablet fad the last time it appeared. It will do the same again.

I'm not about to pronounce the tablet a dead duck, but this time around looks a lot like previous attempts to make this form factor the standard. Its fate will be sealed once Apple brings out a convertible iPad.

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About John C. Dvorak

Columnist, PCMag.com

John C. Dvorak is a columnist for PCMag.com and the co-host of the twice weekly podcast, the No Agenda Show. His work is licensed around the world. Previously a columnist for Forbes, PC/Computing, Computer Shopper, MacUser, Barrons, the DEC Professional as well as other newspapers and magazines. Former editor and consulting editor for InfoWorld, he also appeared in the New York Times, LA Times, Philadelphia Enquirer, SF Examiner, and the Vancouver Sun. He was on the start-up team for C/Net as well as ZDTV. At ZDTV (and TechTV) he hosted Silicon Spin for four years doing 1000 live and live-to-tape TV shows. His Internet show Cranky Geeks was considered a classic. John was on public radio for 8 years and has written over 5000 articles and columns as well as authoring or co-authoring 14 books. He's the 2004 Award winner of the American Business Editors Association's national gold award for best online column of 2003. That was followed up by an unprecedented second national gold award from the ABEA in 2005, again for the best online column (for 2004). He also won the Silver National Award for best magazine column in 2006 as well as other awards. Follow him on Twitter @therealdvorak.

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