The Linux market has grown tremendously as a result of support from Hewlett-Packard, IBM and Oracle, resulting in predictions that it will soon replace other operating systems, particularly Unix.
However, despite the fact that Linux is becoming more pervasive and has begun to move into the mainstream, particularly with the advent of blade servers to which Linux is well suited, the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts that Linux will not come near to replacing the Unix and Windows operating systems in the next three to four years.
"Unix accounts for around 40% of server spending and has varied little from that level," says Martin Hingley, IDC European VP. "There may be a slight decline in the Unix server market share in the coming years, but Unix will not go away and will not be replaced by Linux in the foreseeable future because the fact remains that Linux cannot yet scale as high as Unix."
Hingley told Hewlett-Packard customers and partners at a presentation in Kyalami on Friday that Microsoft Windows will also continue to be strong for some years to come. "Windows will continue to grow alongside Linux at the expense of other operating systems, although the spending on Unix and Windows will still be higher than Linux by 2007," he said.
"Linux is the new thing, accounting for only 6% of the European market by the end of last year. Linux is expected to reach around 17% by the end of 2008, which means Linux will not have replaced other platform types and servers in that time, but will be playing an important complementary role, where appropriate."
This conservative forecast for Linux is based on several factors, explained Hingley, including a shortage of open source partners for relevant applications, a lack of industry respect for the Linux development community, and the need for a more appropriate business model where there is no fear of vendor lock-in or obsolescence.
"There are also certain risks involved, such as possible legal issues in using open source software and the cost and hassle of change," says Hingley.
Despite these hurdles, Hingley pointed out that Linux is cheaper to purchase and maintain, there is ease of skills transfer because of similarities with Unix, and there is great community interest in supporting Linux developments.
"With Linux, we are already getting more for less, Linux is not owned by a company, thereby avoiding common political restrictions when it comes to making IT choices, and Linux is a small, but growing part of the server market."
Hingley concluded that Linux is assured of a bright future because of its importance to overcoming the problems of "time, money and hassle, which are the main challenges facing CIOs today".
Share