Windows 7 will dominate by year's end, Gartner says

I have tried to make sense about the figures given by them. I found out that 1+1=3 and that 8-3=4 Maybe my doctor was right after all, about that Dementia I picked up.

Did Enderle go to work for Gartner?

Go search the Linux Today archives on 'Gartner' and marvel at their track record. They're as worthless as they've always been, just an opinion for hire, and much of the time they're obviously paid to find negative PR angles about Linux.

If windows is running on 45% of PCs, and apple on 5%, does that mean that linux has the other 50%

Sorry for asking, but I really got ' reasoning' problems today !

Linux is just a geek fad, you know. I trust Gartner.

I trust Gartner to spout worthless drivel.

>>>>>Linux is just a geek fad.

Are you accusing me of being a geek ? ..This is getting serious ! ...

Nah. You're not a geek.

If you were a geek, you wouldn't be wasting your time here...

;-)

Hey, 9/10 Gartner analysts believe Gartner market reports are unbiased by funding source and are accurate in predicting future trends. So, there must be something to these reports.

I ALSO get the distinct sense that Gartnersoft Win$ucks' numbers are, shall we say, a bit misleading. Probably just questionable statistics from factory-shipped big-box PC companies. Nothing at all about "new" self-assembled PCs, upgraded PCs, dual-boot PCs, or the huge & always UNDERestimated "hidden" Linux-installed PC market. Nada, nilch. Watch some better studies come along and show -- for smaller and very active businesses -- that these businesses are just NOT drinking the Gartner-M$ Kool-Aid!

2c

I've noticed a Windows 7 ad campaign on Tee Vee where MSFT takes over someone's house, installs a Windows PC store, and then lets the person (usually a wife, or female significant other) shop for a new PC.

The shopper states up front that her old computer is just as good as any new computer, but ends up surprised by all the too-cool-to-be-true features of the new PCs! And ends up with stating that she's a PC running Windows 7.

But if XP still has 46% of the installed base, and Windows 7 at around 25%, Windows 7 isn't competing with anything other than a previous MSFT product. Which explains the commercials. MSFT is trying to convince ordinary people (not gadget freaks or "early adopters) to buy a new PC with Windows 7, to replace their most valiant XP box.

Fine, take their cast-offs and send them to Ken.

Quoting:But if XP still has 46% of the installed base, and Windows 7 at around 25%, Windows 7 isn't competing with anything other than a previous MSFT product.

So Windows 7 is competing with its largest competitor, Windows XP, while OS X and Linux marketshare stays static (on the desktop). Makes sense.

Don't believe the hype about Linux market share being static... If it were, M$ wouldn't be on the defensive so much. M$'s own numbers put Linux adoption at about 7%, several years ago. Since then, you've seen nothing but "studies" putting it at 1%. Why such a discrepency??? I just don't believe it...

First, they're counting machines, not users. The question is how to count multi-boot and virtual machines. I'd argue as counting them as multiple machines, once for each OS.

Google says the installed base of PC's passed 1 billion in 2008 and is in the 1.5 billion range now.

Fedora says they have 32 million unique IP address connecting to their repositories. Canonical estimates 12 million users as of April 2010. Taking those at face value gives us around 44 million Linux machines just with those distributions. I'd guess the rest of the Linux distros total at least as much again, but let's be generous and only add 50%, That give us 66 million. That's over 4% of 1.5 billion.

I'm comfortable with a 5% user base as being halfway accurate.

Quoting: I'm comfortable with a 5% user base as being halfway accurate.

Me too, especially since I have about 12 computers connecting to one IP address, and 2 to another, mobile hot spot, in my possession. Only one of those runs Windoze... and it only boots when I need t to configure some hardware.

Oh, and there should b consideration of a large number of the Linux machines being counted as Windoze machines,... due to being purchased with Windoze on them. That should help justify the bump from 4% to 5%

Quoting:Google says the installed base of PC's passed 1 billion in 2008 and is in the 1.5 billion range now.

Fedora says they have 32 million unique IP address connecting to their repositories.

So fedora, by its lonesome self, could account for the entire Linux "market share" presence as reflected in even the Wikimedia stats, even if each access identified by the wikimedia logs as "Linux" in fact represents only one computer?

Very interesting.

Since (I'm sure we can all agree) Wikimedia has no direct or indirect vested interest in distorting the stats about OS client share, the question becomes where does the bias creep in...

(yes, I know that fedora boxes aren't necessarily desktop systems, but that would appear, from these numbers, to be hardly the most significant factor in figuring out why a seemingly reasonable estimate based on browser stats comes out so badly biased).