The future belongs to Tux.
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| Author | Content |
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| jailbait Mar 08, 2006 4:17 PM EDT |
Everybody examining the possibility of Microsoft collapsing concentrates on the probabilities of people converting from Microsoft software to Open Source software. I have been an adult for three full computer technological revolutions and I can tell you that quick mass conversions have not happened in the past. What happens is that a new technology such as Open Source gets a huge advantage over the old technology such as Microsoft's products. People periodically worry over the problem of the cost of conversion to the new technology versus the long term savings from the new technology. Some people convert but most don't. But when it comes to a new application it is a no brainer. The new technology wins hands down. All new applications are implemented on the new technology. This can be seen in the explosion of Linux into niche markets, some of which will be the mass markets of the future. Every once in a while an old technology application dies for business reasons and is not replaced. Every once in a while an old technology application needs a major rewrite and while they are at it the developers rewrite the application on the new technology. Over time the old technology withers away and dies. Microsoft has added two interesting wrinkles to the old, slow conversion process. First they go out of their way to piss their customers off. There are frequent incidents of companies and especially governments saying, "Hang the expense. Get Microsoft out of here." Second, Microsoft has the morals of a 17 year old drug dealer and like a 17 year old they think that they are invulnerable. The courts will hand Microsoft massive fines which they will shrug off and Microsoft executives will serve multi year jail sentences which their money will do nothing to alleviate. The resulting publicity will be devastating for Microsoft sales. These two factors could well produce the tipping point effect that has been missing in all previous technological revolutions. -------------------------- Steve Stites |
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