Is the sky really falling?
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| Author | Content |
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| cubrewer Mar 21, 2006 3:51 PM EDT |
This editorial seems to me to have a "Chicken Little" flavor. I have no idea how to evaluate the analysis that you discuss partially but I have two reasons to be skeptical of an apocalypse. First, recent history is the best predictor of the near future. The smart money is on betting that Linux and FLOSS continues to grow in influence. You'd also be foolish to bet on radical changes among the biggest, most entrenched IT players. Second, if I had a nickel for every new bold new Microsoft plan, I'd be living in the Gates' $97MIL mansion. So what if they purchased Great Plains several years ago? So what if they tried to buy SAP? Microsoft has had relatively poor penetration into data centers for years and they are beating UNIX in that market (very slowly)... So what? This isn't news and if there is a tipping point on the horizon, I'd bet it's one that favors Linux with it's double-digit growth. About Dell (from your comments), I know that Dell has a degree of interest in the big-iron field and I know that they are worried about a sea change as hardware becomes a commodity. But I have a really hard time seeing Dell acquire Sun. Sun's R&D-heavy strategy is the opposite of Dell's "me too, but with better execution" approach. I don't know why Dell would think they have strengths that could turn Sun around (or are you claiming that Dell is looking for Sun sales people to see Dell products?) You're entitled to your opinions, but for me it just doesn't add up. |
| tadelste Mar 21, 2006 3:54 PM EDT |
Here's a comment from our assistant editor-in-chief on digg.com: Sorry, but this is not pro-MS rhetoric. I can vouch for the author's FOSS creds. He is arguing for the FOSS community to find some solid venues for innovation. Re-read the article. http://digg.com/linux_unix/Microsoft_Has_Stopped_Competing_w... You can digg it if you want. After getting 100,000+ visits yesterday on my article (mutiply that by thousand for hits) I'm out of responses. But, I love ya man. P.S. I can see how you view this as a chicken little kind of thing. That's pretty original thinking and a good title but that's not the intent. I'd like the community to take a look at creating an open architecture in places where we are not "me too" and where we excel. If this was my company instead of a community I'd do it myself. And if it doesn't happen soon, I will do it myself. Finally, you should write for us too. We need lots of emerging authors. You'd get a lot of support from our editors. Like I said, you can't have my Bud Lite. |
| cubrewer Mar 21, 2006 4:51 PM EDT |
I'd love to write an article comparing Linux as it exists today (say FC5) and how it will be in just a few months (say, FC6) to Vista. As far as I can see, most of the innovative reasons one would have for using Vista are already present in Linux. (Seperation of administrator and user privledges, encrypted filesystems, Aero--compare to glx or aiglx) So, we are all in agreement that you're not a MS agent spreading FUD... but what is your point? That Linux isn't innovative enough? Not only don't I agree (see above... MS is the party playing catch-up) but I don't know why you started talking about all the cloak-and-dagger stuff about acquisitions... Are you saying that there is some relationship between Microsoft trying to sell business software and Linux innovation? I'm not seeing it. BTW, I think spending a HALF A BILLION dollars to promote Vista and office is a big deal! I think it shows that despite their new "What Linux? We don't see any Linux!" attitude, the folks in Redmond have soiled their pants. Not just (or even primarily about Linux) but about the commoditization of software. Did you notice Gate's comments about the $100 MIT laptop? He said something like "sure the hardware is commodity, it's the software that adds value". FLOSS directly refutes Microsoft's business model and it's future. Whether Balmer knows it or not, Microsoft is in direct competition with many forces and organizations and Linux and FLOSS are definitely one of the most serious problems facing Redmond. I think MS actually knows this but they're struck it from their talking points. If anything, I think the recent MS focus on the enterprise is an attempt to wrestle attention away from FLOSS and fresh companies like Google. |
| tadelste Mar 21, 2006 7:08 PM EDT |
Quoting:but what is your point? That Linux isn't innovative enough? Not only don't I agree (see above... MS is the party playing catch-up) but I don't know why you started talking about all the cloak-and-dagger stuff about acquisitions The point is fairly simple, Microsoft isn't focused on Linux as a competitive threat. I don't know how to say it any other way. It's a similar way of thinking when UNIX companies didn't consider Microsoft a competitive threat. I interviewed in the early 1990's for an accounting and MIS job with one of the large business supply companies. They ran a bunch of System V machines and had a workgroup of 8-10 Windows 3.11 desktops for one small department. Windows was no threat to anyone at that time including Apple. Microsoft has a mantra back then: Good enough. Today, with all the great things about Linux, we don't compete on the desktop. You can say we do, that doesn't make it true. Steeleye provides the same clustering capability for Windows 2003 Server. People are still willing to pay the licenses fees. As far as the enterprise market, Linux on the desktop isn't even good enough. I'm not talking off the top of my head. I have a pretty good network of people in Fortune 25 companies who are still doing pilots with Linux and still can't get where they want to go. Some of these gentlemen and ladies did technical reviews on my last book. They don't lie. They are advocates for Linux inside their companies. Most have Red Hat certs. All of us who favor Linux and free software need to get over ourselves. We need to stop this wishful thinking and offering evidence about how great Linux and free software competes. It does NOT compete in the market, it doesn't compete in government RFPs, it doesn't compete in the SMB space. Our wins across the board are insignificant in the scheme of things. I'm presenting facts. If people don't want to accept facts, they can live with their reasons. But, if someone confronts you from your own community with the intention of doing good and that person is a credible source, you should take an inventory and do something about the status of the situation. Like it or not. Our community needs to warm up to the fact that we're in denial. |
| jimf Mar 21, 2006 8:28 PM EDT |
tadelste said:
" Linux on the desktop isn't even good enough. I'm not talking off the top of my head. I have a pretty good network of people in Fortune 25 companies who are still doing pilots with Linux and still can't get where they want to go." All I can say is that, for my purpose, my Debian/KDE desktop is far better than anything that exists today in the Windows world. That wasn't true three years ago when I started using Linux full time. What I was seeing was when enough people got interested in an area of development, the app 'was' developed. That is one of the caveats of Linux. Because it is community driven, the demand and interest in the application(s) must be there first, otherwise no one develops for it, and it dies. What enterprise wants, or thinks that it needs may be something else entirely, and I'm not sure there is a way to get what they want, unless, they are willing and able to do it themselves. That's the bottom line. |
| trueash Mar 21, 2006 8:49 PM EDT |
What I don't get about some open source people is how great they are at ignoring the reality with phrases like: "Well, it works in MY Debian/KDE..." Go tell it to some corporation board, and I'll see how many seconds later you will be kicked out. I have a feeling some people feel fine the way they are, in the comfort of their linux cubicles, and do not want to see the truth. And the truth is, that it is the CUSTOMERS who fed its money to the fledgling Microsoft and grew it into the monster it is today. What linux should have gotten round to doing long ago is fostering its user base - I mean users who create things, not just warp screens or write the umpteenths text editor. |
| jdixon Mar 21, 2006 9:04 PM EDT |
Tom: > It does NOT compete in the market, it doesn't compete in government RFPs, it doesn't compete in the SMB space. Our wins across the board are insignificant in the scheme of things. While this is largely true, I don't think it's quite as bad as you're thinking. Linux on the desktop right now is about where Linux on the server was in say, 1996-1998. Most, but not all, of the pieces are in place. If you're willing to run Crossover Office, then effectively all of the pieces are in place, as the major apps that are still needed from Windows are then available. Does this mean that you can switch all of your desktops to Linux? No, but it means that your average user can be switched. You will continue to need some Windows machines around for specialized tasks. Wasn't that exactly the case in the server market about 8-10 years ago? The desktop is Microsoft's stronghold. It's where they started and where they're the strongest. Making headway there will take longer than it did on servers, but it is happening. And many of the places it's happening aren't going to say anything about it. The last thing they want is to attract Microsoft's attention. Again, this mirrors exactly what happened on servers. All of the pieces weren't in place for the server until the 2.0 kernel. The 2.0.1 kernel on kernel.org is dated 7/3/96. So it's taken 10 years for Linux to reach its current position on servers. The desktop wasn't really usable until the release of OpenOffice 1.0 (5/1/02, from Wikipedia) and Firefox 1.0 (11/9/04, from Mozilla's site). So, even if the desktop goes as quickly, which I doubt it will, we're still less than two years into that 10 year process. Given time, I expect the same success on the desktop as on the server, but it will take time. |
| salparadise Mar 21, 2006 9:25 PM EDT |
Question: What makes the opinion of someone who works for a huge corporation any more reliable, worthy or important than someone who works for a charity? I would suggest that these companies need to learn from OSS and NOT the other way round. Perhaps Linux needs to split in two and one half go off and play corporate whore while the rest carry on with free software. Because I seriously doubt the two are compatible. You remember those dodgy Western films? And it's Indian drums day and night and night and day it doesn't stop until just before they attack? I don't like it, it's too quiet. |
| jimf Mar 21, 2006 10:09 PM EDT |
trueash, I simply stated my experience with Linux, I admit that it may not work in the 'enterprise' (read large corporate) environment.... Now how is that denying the truth? I'm certainly not saying that Linux has 'arrived', but, development of Linux and the Linux Desktop will continue, although, Linux Developers and the Linux community are motivated very differently than those in the world of propritary software. 'Maybe' they will fulfill your enterprise dream and maybe not... Now you can believe in your 'truth', but, that's reality. |
| wjl Mar 22, 2006 12:22 AM EDT |
Hi all, I think it's all a matter of time, as said here before. If I do a Google search for "sapgui linux" today, it brings some 70.000 hits. A search for "notes client linux" brings out some 16 Million hits. All of the big server solutions today *do* run on Linux, like SAP or Domino and most of the ERP "solutions" I can think of. IBM is indeed a strong contender in that "enterprise" market with its Websphere and other solutions and its strong commitment to the Linux community. I installed Websphere on Solaris first; that is some years ago already, and I bet todays Linux versions are way better than it was at that time. What is really missing at the moment is - IMHO - the numbers of desktops that make exactly the same companies consider them enough of a "target" to put their solutions on. And we're working on that, aren't we? I saw in the latest Ingram Micro monthly adpackages that by now you really *can* order Fujitsu Siemens or HP computers without a pre-installed OS or with only FreeDOS on them. And they're about 100$/€ cheaper. This *will* make a difference, if you need many of them. Tom said: >It has a cost benefit and a technology benefit for people who do not want to use Microsoft's limited development tools. That's something Microsoft developers will never understand. That's true; sadly. But this is another problem. Today we have a generation of "developers" which were obviously born with mice in their hands, and they have no clue about UNIX-like programming. If you - like we - have a whole shop full of these, you will indeed have problems in the future. IMHO. But these business guys were never actually listening to me anyway, so this is not really *my* problem, except that sooner or later I will have to find a new job... ;-) cheers, wjl |
| Libervis Mar 22, 2006 2:53 AM EDT |
Tadelste:Quoting:The point is fairly simple, Microsoft isn't focused on Linux as a competitive threat. I don't know how to say it any other way. If that is the case then that's bad for Microsoft and probably good for us. If it doesn't see it as a competitive threat yet, that only means we still have more space to grow, and we do grow. I think that if we really aren't a threat yet, we'll sure become one, and soon so. However, all the advertising that Microsoft has put out against GNU/Linux (like "get the facts" campaign) make it rather hard to believe GNU/Linux is not a considered a threat to them at all. But OK, maybe that is only limited to the server market, and maybe on the desktop we still aren't a threat, but that will probably change. |
| number6x Mar 22, 2006 3:05 AM EDT |
You could look at this another way. It was not that long ago that people used to say "Well, I don't use Linux because there isn't a good web browser, or there isn't a good word processor." Now people say things like "I design ceramic dental replacements and Linux doesn't have a certain software package that lets me quickly calculate ratios of composites I need to make the teeth. The kiln manufacturer only has a Windows version, So I'll stick with Windows for now" Really We used to want for a good browser, now we bemoan the lack of tax preparation software we only use a few weeks out of the year. Linux now fills most of everyone's needs. So the time is right for Linux to start leading the desktop software industry. Its how Linux became the dominant OS in the server room. |
| tadelste Mar 22, 2006 4:31 AM EDT |
Quoting:Now people say things like "I design ceramic dental replacements and Linux doesn't have a certain software package that lets me quickly calculate ratios of composites I need to make the teeth. Interesting. That's exactly the kind of thing for which I see Linux used. Great example, SCO used to own the dental market. My dentist uses it. That's an easy port. Perfect example of where it fits. My wife works at Southwest Medical School in Dallas. Those guys use Linux for numerous things where they get research grants. The even has interfaces to guess what - medical devices like heart monitors, etc. With regard to the desktop being where the server was in 1998, I wouldn't say that. Two things put the desktop closer. 1. The Linux developers have created a dynamic underbelly for the desktop. The server with the 2.05 kernel was better than DOS and did some serious web serving, was a decent print and file server and had an illegal same sex marriage with Samba ;-) 2. Gnome and KDE are terrific desktop. Openoffice.org, Firefox, Evolution, GIMP, Gaim, Bluefish, the varous IDE's, etc. are excellent. I personally use Firefox and Gmail, which I consider a nice combination. We also have SSH and really nice terminals like gnome-terminal, screen. gftp, etc. We excel on the desktop at Internet utilities, etc. I don't have a problem using Ubuntu in excess of 12 hours a day. People who know me will tell those hours are accurate. But and here's the "but" about the desktop - we're at a minimum power users and probably pretty good hackers. I put myself in between there. I'm decent sysadmin, and do some programming and a lot of work on web sites. If I have a problem on the Linux desktop I can fix it. But, the vast majority of desktop users can only click a few icons, tend to stay with autoplay when they insert CDs and DVDs we can't legally do in the US. They know where to find their MS games (maybe), Word, maybe Excel, IE, My documents and that's probably the gist. If they need X, the company buys Exceed. If the need a 5250 terminal, the company buys homebody something. I would start by adding Quickbooks and MS Money. For one thing both of those now become an interface to every bank's on-line systems. Secondly, I'm improve GIMP to the point that it looks like Photoshop on the Mac. Then I would get several ports of tax software like TurboTax and TaxCut. Finally, we need to play all the Berlitz type courses. Someone should also figure out how to get embedded Linux into DVD players that could fit a PC. Then I think we become competitive. |
| number6x Mar 22, 2006 5:46 AM EDT |
I definitely saw that kind of specialization in the hard sciences with Linux. Geologists, Mathematicins, physicists all wrote extensive specialized software in the early days of Linux, and it continues today. Some specialists may be power users, but lack the skills or time to create the software. Sometimes a lawyer or a ceramic engineer might need something, and even have the ability to create it, but they won't have the time. As Linux becomes more common the demand might be met by having professionals sponsor projects with money. Like the Windows port ti intel/mac was done. And that dvd player whith embedded Linux, Who's stopping Tivo from adding a dvd? It could just be a player not a recorder. I wonder what kind of pressure their under from the MPAA to not include a dvd player, or is it just a measure to keep down the cost of a Tivo box? |
| tadelste Mar 22, 2006 9:02 AM EDT |
sean: the MPAA has allowed DVD in embedded Linux devices for some time. http://www.intervideo.com/jsp/LinDVD.jsp This is only one of many. Why not a DVD player-recorder as an embedded device that simply goes into one of your 5 1/2" bays? |
| number6x Mar 22, 2006 9:25 AM EDT |
I see what you mean. I misunderstood, and was thinking of a consumer set top box. Yeah, a dvd drive with a dvd decoder daughter board. Most Motherboards come with some kind of legal dvd playing software for Windows, the Linux versions don't seem to be forth coming. Or better yet an HDTV card with dvd decoder hardware in it. That could sell to the Linux, Windows, and Mac crowd. put it in a pc with a monitor, and a dvd drive and you've got an hdtv that plays dvd's as well. I still think with Linux adoption outpacing Windows in much of the World, we have to reach a tipping point sooner or later. I'm in this for the long haul. |
| tadelste Mar 22, 2006 11:18 AM EDT |
Oh, no doubt Linux adoption is outpacing MS in many parts of the world: Brazil, China, Spain, Argentina, Mexico, S. Korea, South Africa, Nigeria, Syria, Iran and Cuba. Maybe India, but one never knows about them. |
| jimf Mar 22, 2006 2:02 PM EDT |
tadelste wrote:Quoting:"But and here's the "but" about the desktop - we're at a minimum power users and probably pretty good hackers. I put myself in between there. I'm decent sysadmin, and do some programming and a lot of work on web sites. If I have a problem on the Linux desktop I can fix it. Both KDE and Gnome are closer to the Windows 98 pattern than they are to XP or Vista. I think this is because Linux users are more proficient and find this format more rational than the latest and greatest from MS, which tend to isolate the user completely. I know that the W2k and XP masking of any meaningful system functions was one of the straws which headed me over to Linux. From the time I started using Linux (and long before that I suspect), there has been a struggle between those that want to pander to the lowest common denominator, as does MS, or to leave in access to the more meaningful system functions. So far, Linux (KDE and Gnome) has done pretty well in striking a balance between ease of use for the n00b, and, reasonable access for the expert. I don't think that existing Linux users want to see Linux any less accessible and I believe that there will be a backlash if we try to push toward a less functional interface. Duplicating Vista's terrible interface, or anything close to it, is not an acceptable answer. Perhaps we need a child's version of Gnome or KDE with large program icons, a locked down interface and no access to anything other than specific functions for that 'vast majority'.... Oh, that's right... we could easily set that up right now. And as for apps for 'homebody', well, that can be done by an admin without much hassle. Truthfully, Linux is much easier to customize for enterprise than any of the MS stuff. I just never understand that argument. |
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