For how long?
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| r_a_trip Jan 05, 2011 7:55 AM EDT |
I'm not doubting that Walmart is selling Linux powered tablets, but I'm seriously doubting they are doing this because it has Linux inside. IMO, Walmart wants to sell a cheap tablet as a counterpoint to the more expensive iPad. For now these cheaper tablets run on ARM and Android. Basically, Walmart sells Linux as long as cheap pad devices run Android. I wonder what happens when MS succeeds in getting a touch enabled Windows 7 starter to run halfway decent on ARM. The only reason MS isn't mucking up the market right now is that they are taken by surprise once again with cheap, small computers not running Windows. The last time they were lucky that the small, cheap computers were x86 based. They could whip up a special license for good old obsolete XP quickly. Now they are ambushed by a non x86 architecture and a potential customer base that expects more functionality than good old Windows CE. I expect MS to try to do the same to Linux tablets as they did with Linux netbooks. As soon as they can throw out an ARM enabled Windows and Office (be it recompiled for ARM or webbased), they will start the FUD machine about how Linux and Android tablets don't deliver the full experience and Windows tablets do. Throw in some "Ad rebate" incentives and see all the Windows DSV's (Dependent Software Vendors) scramble to make Linux disappear. The only uncontrollable threat are the really independent vendors, who never shipped Windows and never will. If Google also steps in with incentives to ship Android, then MS usual MO might not work this time. |
| hkwint Jan 05, 2011 8:19 AM EDT |
Well said! I'm not sure if the non-tech-savvy crowd will buy into Android /iOS 'not delivering the full Windows experience' though, as probably "Windows for ARM" won't either. Moreover, we see hardware companies like NuFront, TI and ARM demo'ing their prototype-hardware with Linux(-kernel) on it, which will probably mean Linux will run on it before Windows does. I think Microsoft is not used to this "second place", and there's not much they can do about it. HP, Dell, Acer et. all. could be 'hostaged' by Microsoft because they're dependent on Microsoft. There's much customer demand for desktops with Windows, so they can't afford it to have Microsoft as an enemy. For HTC, Motorola, Samsung et. all. the situation is different. Microsoft can't threaten them with more expensive "Windows-volume-licenses" the more Android they sell, like they probably do with HP/Dell et all. So the only way to push Windows on those devices is "bribing" err I mean cooperating with said companies or threatening with patents. They have a strategic alliance both with Nokia and NuFront, so I think we can tell on which horses they bet. Given their ARM-architecture license I think we'll als see some kind of x86-emulator, or some x86- to-ARM translator. |
| r_a_trip Jan 05, 2011 8:54 AM EDT |
Given their ARM-architecture license I think we'll als[o] see some kind of x86-emulator, or some x86- to-ARM translator. $Deity save us all. Given MS's track record on speedy software, this will make ARM-Win even more of a dog than Windows 7 on Atom. On the other hand, that might be advantageous for ARM-Linux. My only big fear about Windows on ARM is the vast group of people who don't think and just assume, because the sticker on the box says Windows, that they will be best served by it. That might be the biggest hurdle Linux on ARM has to overcome. Nothing kills a software platform faster than a customer base that dismisses it a priori. This could keep ARM-Linux devices, except Android phones and tablets, a niche phenomenon. |
| bigg Jan 05, 2011 9:53 AM EDT |
I have to ask what reason there would be to put Windows rather than Android on a tablet. Consumers didn't understand (and I was one) initially the concept of a netbook. Some people did use netbooks as a small laptop, but in that case, they were used to and wanted Windows. Microsoft had the advantage of MS Office not running on Linux netbooks. Tablets are viewed as phones with large screens. Nobody wants a full office suite on a tablet. Compatibility with Windows is a non-issue. And something else is equally important. Android is an OS designed for mobile devices. The linux that appeared on netbooks was not impressive, to put it in favorable terms. This is completely different. To the extent that it's a David vs Goliath story, Microsoft is David vs the Goliath of Google and Apple. |
| jimbauwens Jan 05, 2011 10:41 AM EDT |
But David wins in the end! |
| bigg Jan 05, 2011 11:54 AM EDT |
> But David wins in the end! Only in the Bible. I don't really see Microsoft as a biblical figure, at least the type of figure David was. |
| r_a_trip Jan 05, 2011 12:03 PM EDT |
I have to ask what reason there would be to put Windows rather than Android on a tablet. I'm not quite sure at which group this question is aimed. I wouldn't want Windows on anything, even if it (arguably) was the better choice. I don't think the tech savvy group that is eyeing tablets now, would want Windows on it. For Mac users, the iPad is an extension of their Mac. For Android users an Android tablet would be a bigger and easier surfing and gaming device. But what about the large group that thinks "Windows = Computing" and are proud owners of a computer just because everybody else has one? Once the tech-savvy have adopted the tablet, this group of technical illiterates will want to "keep up with the times". If a Windows tablet is available, I'm pretty confident these people will buy it on the fact that it runs Windows alone. It will not be a matter of technical fitness, but a matter of familiarity and the belief that Windows on a computer makes it usable. Once Windows is on there, there will be the expectation that it is capable of running everything that a Windows desktop can run too. I still don't get the artificial concept of the netbook as an internet appliance. Netbooks are ultraportable and powerful x86 clamshell computers. (I was tempted to say laptop, but that wouldn't describe it properly.) I see no reason to limit such a device to be a glorified webbrowser and e-mail reader. My N450 based netbook functions beautifully with the regular Linux Mint 10 desktop distro. |
| bigg Jan 05, 2011 12:25 PM EDT |
> But what about the large group that thinks "Windows = Computing" That's where I disagree. Nobody thinks of Windows as an OS for phones. I believe tablets are viewed as substitutes for phones, not desktops and laptops. The cool phones are the iPhone, Blackberry, or run Android. Windows is for people who drive Oldsmobiles. > If a Windows tablet is available, I'm pretty confident these people will buy it on the fact that it runs Windows alone. In the last few months I've heard maybe 30 conversations by individuals of various ages talking about phones and tablets. I never once heard the term "Windows". Those individuals are not nerds by any stretch of the imagination. > I still don't get the artificial concept of the netbook as an internet appliance. The original goal of Asus, as I understand it, was that the netbook would focus on being cheap and portable. It was not supposed to be a laptop replacement for that reason. Tablets are viewed as an entirely different device. You're not likely to see people lugging around 3.6 pound tablets with 10 inch screens, 2 GB of RAM, and a 160 GB hard drive. They will be used to watch movies, open a browser, and organize their appointments. You will never see tablets running MS Office. |
| phsolide Jan 05, 2011 12:30 PM EDT |
This isn't Walmart's 2nd time around the block on this sort of issue. In 2002 (I think) I bought a MSI-motherboard computer with NO OPERATING SYSTEM from WalMart. It was indeed totally blank: the hard drive had nothing on it. I had SuSE 7.3, then migrated it to Slackware 9.0, and it's run Slackware ever since. It sits in my basement, running my website, my SMTP server, and DNS and DHCP on my household area network. |
| jdixon Jan 05, 2011 2:15 PM EDT |
> I don't really see Microsoft as a biblical figure... Oh, I know a number of folks who would disagree with you. :) |
| JaseP Jan 05, 2011 2:40 PM EDT |
Quoting: > I don't really see Microsoft as a biblical figure... Yeah, but the one you're thinking of has horns & a goat's feet... I kinda disagree on the netbook thing... I think the problem was not failing to have M$ Office on netbooks. It was having a crippled version of GNU/Linux on them. If the had come with a full Ubuntu (yeah some are cringing, I know) & OpenOffice/LibreOffice, the story would have been vastly different. On top of that, M$ used payolla & threats to change the face of the netbook market. For tablets, I think that the Holy Grail will be having more than rthe current Android tablets can offer, in terms of usefull productivity software versus just being an at-home web surfing toy. That means working note-taking and office apps on par with at least what Palm could do 5 to 6 years ago. If you pair rhat with HTPC interactivity, you have a winner (current Android offerings require a PC server app to use an Android device as a mouse/keyyboard... a non-starter). M$ may have a leg up on inking. Android is a failure there. But Meego has all the potential of Maemo 5, if they could only get their act together. |
| Bob_Robertson Jan 05, 2011 2:44 PM EDT |
When I was working at a client's site yesterday, running hither and yon with my big, hot, HP laptop, I realized just how useful a little 10 inch "netbook" would be. But for the need for a generic Linux on it, and an ethernet port, I could have used my 10 year old Zaurus. Too bad they're too expensive for my meager wherewithall at this time. |
| bigg Jan 05, 2011 2:54 PM EDT |
> For tablets, I think that the Holy Grail will be having more than rthe current Android tablets can offer, in terms of usefull productivity software versus just being an at-home web surfing toy. But they can do anything you can do with a phone. I personally do not see much of a market for tablets with productivity software. It will always be better to use a netbook, laptop, or desktop. The big flaw with the current Android is that Google is so restricted with who can access Android Market. It makes no sense, they should be trying for the largest possible market share at this point. |
| jdixon Jan 05, 2011 3:12 PM EDT |
> If the had come with a full Ubuntu (yeah some are cringing, I know) & OpenOffice/LibreOffice, the story would have been vastly different. The Dell Mini 9. for example? It came with a full install of Ubuntu 8.04. Of course, Dell has never bothered preparing an upgrade to 10.04, and if you want to do it yourself you have to install from scratch, as the lpia architecture is no longer supported. |
| hkwint Jan 05, 2011 7:36 PM EDT |
Just confirmed: Next version of Windows will run on ARM, Microsoft (also) betting on ARM PC's. |
| tuxchick Jan 05, 2011 7:58 PM EDT |
Woa. It's taken how long for the mighty MS to develop for a non-x86 architecture? Man, they have friction burns from the speed of their innovation! |
| bigg Jan 05, 2011 8:03 PM EDT |
> Next version of Windows will run on ARM Which means in the second quarter of 2015, we will see a tablet OS that has minimum hardware requirements of a quad core processor, 8 GB of RAM, and 250 GB of hard drive space. With proper engineering, you will be able to run it on a tablet weighing as little as 6 pounds. |
| Bob_Robertson Jan 05, 2011 8:36 PM EDT |
> It's taken how long for the mighty MS to develop for a non-x86 architecture? WinNT ran on the DEC-Alpha in 1996, 64bit native. So did Linux, 64bit and clean as a whistle. We had several DEC Alphas at NASA where I worked. It took another several years for AMD and the WinTel architectures to catch up. Microsoft dropped support for the DEC Alpha after only a year or two, when that architecture did not take off. Due, in my not so humble opinion, to the fact that DEC tried to keep it proprietary. |
| r_a_trip Jan 06, 2011 2:35 AM EDT |
Windows isn't the only thing running. They've also got MS Office recompiled for ARM. |
| hkwint Jan 06, 2011 3:07 AM EDT |
Quoting:With proper engineering, you will be able to run it on a tablet weighing as little as 6 pounds. Of course not, if you paid attention you might have noticed FreeScale offers a quadcore solution (i.MX6) which only uses 350 milliWatt while playing HD content, which includes GPU. It supports DDR3, but also a lower-power variant. Available end 2011. Add SSD + transflective display and done! No way such a device has to weigh more than 1kg, or should cost over $500. Because I'm pretty sure even Microsoft-geniuses figured out if what you said would be true, they wouldn't be competitive and suffer a "second-KIN" loss Goldman Sachs and rating agency's are not going to forgive them. |
| bigg Jan 06, 2011 7:28 AM EDT |
> even Microsoft-geniuses figured out if what you said would be true, they wouldn't be competitive The point of my post was that Microsoft has a way of missing what the customer wants in a spectacular way. They're the KDE 4 of the commercial software world. |
| r_a_trip Jan 06, 2011 9:16 AM EDT |
The point of my post was that Microsoft has a way of missing what the customer wants in a spectacular way. Is this still true? I was taken by surprise they actually already made an ARM compatible NT base and combined this with the Win7 interface and to top it of they had a native MS Office running, not to mention Internet Explorer surfing away on the web. I will have to readjust my perception of MS. They haven't been this agile since the days of Win95/98. |
| hkwint Jan 06, 2011 9:39 AM EDT |
bigg: Can't argue with that, only time will tell. I think ARM-hardware is better than what most people assume though. A 1.2gHz quadcore with out-of-order support and 40 bit memory addressing + multi-core GPU capable of the same amount of MPolyg./sec as a XBox360 should be enough for most tasks I think, even for Windows! Most desktops however are designed to match 'peak number-crunching demand', and for peak-demand desktops will remain necessary for a while. Or the peak demand has to be fulfilled by the cloud - though this requires users trust the cloud. |
| Bob_Robertson Jan 06, 2011 3:13 PM EDT |
> Or the peak demand has to be fulfilled by the cloud - though this requires users trust the cloud. Yeah, I'm going to transcode my legally bought movies "in the cloud", and be prepared for weekly visits from the FBI... |
| JaseP Jan 06, 2011 4:11 PM EDT |
Quoting: But they can do anything you can do with a phone. I personally do not see much of a market for tablets with productivity software. It will always be better to use a netbook, laptop, or desktop. Except that they can do it without forcing you to get bifocals a decade early... & how many (non-college students) carry a laptop around to take notes, read an e-book, look something up on the Web or just open a spreadsheet while not at their desk? Don't underestimate the importance of a form-factor. |
| hkwint Jan 06, 2011 4:43 PM EDT |
Bob: Ah, you provide MPAA with an excellent reason to do the cloudvertizing! |
| JaseP Jan 06, 2011 6:22 PM EDT |
Hey, they'll provide you with a digital copy of the movies you buy on BlueRay(TM)(C)(R) [but only in 480p & only accessible through M$ Windoze]. |
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