Alex. Proj. Chapter 20: Does the Dear Leader have a Rocket in his Pocket, or is he Just Happy to See Us?

...Director of National Intelligence Adlai Stevenson Harrison took the Daily Brief he had completed a half hour before from his briefcase and handed it across the breakfast table as the President put on his reading glasses.

“Hmm. I see you’ve moved Korea to the top position. What’s new since yesterday? Have they gone and sunk another South Korean boat?” “No, nothing that dramatic. And as usual, we can’t know anything for sure. But we’re worried that this time the North might push the envelope a lot farther than usual.”

...“The truth is, there are some new developments we’re watching closely. You’ll recall, the North tried to launch a satellite back in April of 2009. They used a three stage missile, and at least the third stage failed. That stage and the payload hit the ocean about 1300 miles down range. Of course, back home they claimed the launch was a complete success.

...“The other possibility is that the North Korean nuclear tests didn’t fizzle at all. We know the North hasn’t been able to produce much weapons-grade fuel from the reactor they have – maybe enough for six bombs, tops. With the two tests we’ve monitored, they’ve therefore used up at least a third of their stockpile of enriched uranium. They can’t afford to run many more tests without losing the strategic value they just gained by demonstrating that they’ve got a nuclear capability...."

Outside, it was starting to snow, but Harrison couldn’t tell whether the President was aware of it as he stared out the window, tapping his teaspoon quietly on the tablecloth. Finally, he asked, “What do we calculate the odds are of that being the case?”

“Well, Mr. President, there’s no country where we have less reliable intelligence to work with than North Korea. That means that just about everything we have to work with is by way of inference, not based on direct information. So we’d be kidding ourselves if we even tried to come up with anything like a percentage estimate.”

The President turned and looked at him, slightly annoyed. “OK, let me make it simpler. When I walk into the Oval Office today, can I assume that I don’t have to take the Dear Leader’s threat seriously or not?”

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