Windows Phone to eclipse iPhone sales by 2015 - forecast

From what I've seen, it looks kind of like they essentially just assumed A)Nokia would not lose any more market share and B)Nokia's Symbian market share will simply transfer over to Windows 7 Phone 7 Series 7 Phone OS (7) without any further losses, giving Symbian's Q12011 market share directly to Windows Phone 2015.

Seems dubious at best, unless Microsoft can get the legislature to let them sue anyone who uses a competing OS.

Quoting:unless Microsoft can get the legislature to let them sue anyone

I think they use Nokia as a proxy to do so. Already, I think from a legislative POV, Nokia has been the biggest treat to the iPhone. If the Nokia / Windows combination was good enough to outsell the iPhone, they wouldn't have had to litigate though.

If Nokia had gotten behind Maemo in a big way & tweaked the form factor of their N-Series Linux devices (N7xx, N8xx, & N900) to be slimmer & have a bigger screen, it'd been a whitewash of Apple. My N900 can run circles around an iPhone in terms of function and ability to customize. The N900's browsing experience is as close to desktop as any MID I've seen, & with full IR, Bluetooth, WiFi, GSM, GPS, accelerometers, proximity sensor (just wave a finger over it for a customized function), 2 cameras, video out (composite, not HDMI), FM broadcast, Qwerty keyboard, it's got more than any smart-phone out there... Plus full terminal, Debian-based Linux under the hood...

They really sold their soul when they hired this new CEO. And now IDC publishes this bought & paid-for analysis,... ?!?! Self-serving cr@p...

I agree completely, JaseP. Both of our old Nokia N770's are unfortunately dead or dying. The screen is gone on one and the wireless seems to be dead on the other. :( I may have to see what N900's are going for on Ebay.

And I want whatever drugs the brave souls at IDC are taking :)

Someone who knows what side of his toast the butter is on, that's for sure.

TC: It's called "MS-PEP".

MS-Power evangelism pills, I suppose. You see crazy stuff when having consumed those, like those red Acer Ferrari-laptops ending on your doormat, without ever having ordered or asked for one!

Sadly, even when I live in a street which features about 7 smartshops, I never saw those pills. Shame...

Hey, I can do science, me!

*) 48% market share in 2006 and 33% in 2011 means Nokia looses 3 percent per year,

*) Loosing 3% per year four years from 2011 means loosing 12% until 2015,

*) Starting with 33% and loosing 12% you end up with 21%.

*) Keeping said rate, it will take Nokia untill 2017 to sink below Apple's market share.

So the geniusus at IDC figured, in 2015 Nokia only sells Windows, and as a result of said result (is it modus tollendo tollens?) Nokia is ditching Symbian. What great research!

Can I apply for a job at IDC now?

@tc: No you don't. It's called "money from MS", and it costs you every bit of your integrity. I don't think you could handle such a bad trip.

There's an article in there somewhere... Go over to LinuxToday and search on each "analyst" firm's name (I recall seeing a lot of such articles posted there over the years). Grab all the posts where they've made predictions which touch on F/LOSS. Look up how accurate each was and tabulate it all. I'm guessing that neither IDC, Yankee Group nor Gartner will want the results listed and summarized in print or online... which is all the more reason why that should happen. That way, whenever they come out with another pronouncement, one can simply point to their scorecard. With repetition, the scorecard becomes part of the price of the pronouncement.

What I find funny is that the graph shows Android as the market leader by a large margin, with more than twice the market share as #2 WP7. And that's from a bunch of MS fanboys. I.e. even the most pro-Windows, anti-Android people pulling numbers out of their @ss agree that Android (Linux) is going to be much, much bigger than Windows. And that's with all the pro-MS spin they manage to come up with.

cr: Would be fun. Much work though. "IDC site:linuxtoday.com" turns up 10600 results. But I'll keep the idea in the back of my mind.

Quoting:cr: Would be fun. Much work though. "IDC site:linuxtoday.com" turns up 10600 results. But I'll keep the idea in the back of my mind.

Maybe push it to a wiki and let others play too... a FUDbusters-in-miniature effort in the same spirit as GrokLaw?

Analysts have a strange and inexplicable influence on the PHB set. I assume they substitute for actual data and business skills. In theory analysts should at least provide accurate useful information such as market share, financials, and history, and make data-based predictions. But they are funded by the very companies they are analyzing, so duh conflict of interest anyone? There are innumerable loopholes for crafting a not-dishonest report, like results based on the most favorable ten-minute period in the last year.

Though industry analysts do create good honest in-depth reports; usually those do not see the light of day but are kept internal.