Canonical: Ubuntu To Soon Ship On 5% Of PCs

I'm not sure about Ubuntu, but I can magically make Linux ship on at least 5% of PC's...

Just define PC to include X86 based servers.

There done.

@number6x,maybe that is part of what is happening,since they claim about 9 million PC shipments on 8 billion dollars of hardware in 2011.

I doubt the Chinese are up to shelling out 900$ per PC,so maybe some high-priced units are mixed in with those numbers.

@jdixon: Gartner, unlike ABI and Forrester, doesn't count tablets or netbooks as PCs, which makes the task that much more difficult. Another way of putting it: you are saying that the sales in one quarter would have to equal roughly 75% of the total number of Linux based netbooks sold between 2007 and 2010. Sorry... I really don't see Ubuntu having those numbers.

Also, downloads don't count for Gartner or anyone else. Sadly market share does not equate to percentage of installed base. If you download Ubuntu and put it on a three year old system that system was counted as a sale three years ago. It doesn't count for anything today. All market research firms base their numbers on revenue. That would mean that Ubuntu would actually need to be preloaded on at least five percent of systems. That's a really tough goal to reach.

> I really don't see Ubuntu having those numbers.

Oh, I agree with you about that. I'm merely saying that if they did manage to achieve their stated 5% goal, they would also be very close to achieving their 20 million goal. The two figures aren't that far apart. Like you, I don't think there's any way they'll do so.

Their only chances are with set top boxes, Ubuntu on Android, and Ubuntu embedded devices (Netbooks, Tablets, Phones, Home servers, etc.). They can't hit their goal with shipping (standard) laptops, and desktops. There's just no market for them. They're squeezed out in retail spaces. They need to pay retailers for shelf space, after all (Walmart, Target, et al., make their money from the manufacturers, not from the end customers). So, unless Canonical is willing to fork out money for retail shelf space to the big distributors, there won't be a solid marketing channel for them.

I highly doubt Canonical would be foolish enough to make that statement if they didn't believe it to been achievable. They obviously have some plan of attack otherwise i don't they they would have said it. Whether or not its possible is another issue entirely and remains to be seen.

Mark my words. The way I see it developing, there is going to be a very good chance that Canonical will be collaborating with Foxconn or some other outfit, just like Apple does, to offer its own tablet and little desktops. If they don't do it soon, they won't have a chance in the future.

Offering such products on their online store along with own phone/e-mail support for these customers will tremendously increase their chances of succeeding. When that happens, they can start opening their own local stores, which might trigger the interest of other stores.

Good products with good OS along with such support is what users need in order to make a move away from MS.

Depending on OEMs only is not going to work for them. If Canonical shows they are serious about such a move, it might send a serious message to the OEMs to either be receptive to Ubuntu, or face competition.

Fettoosh is right, relying on OEMs to get Ubuntu on hardware into retail won't work.

Sure, Patrick, companies' marketing departments never engage in hyperbole and exaggeration. If marketing says it can happen then of course it will. If you really believe what you wrote I have a very nice bridge in Brooklyn for you, somewhat used of course...

Yes lots of companies do, they fudge numbers here and there and exaggerate in the name of marketing to make themselves look good. Canonical however have been on the slow and steady, up and up but are no where near that target in anyway. If they where to say they will be on 1-2 percent i would put it down to probably being nothing more than mere hype but a number as big as five percent sounds like they have something up their selves e.g what Fettoosh suggested. Not sure what the Brooklyn bridge reference is about but if you where suggesting i jumped from it i suggest you watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rZWw9HE7o otherwise please elaborate.

> I highly doubt Canonical would be foolish enough to make that statement if they didn't believe it to been achievable.

How long have you been dealing with corporatons, Patrick? Corporate statements and reality have at best a tenuous relationship.

Though I see Caitlyn beat me to it.

@Jdixon I explained why it doesn't sound like hyperbole. Surprisingly I have a heavy amount of dealings with the corporate world so i can tell when something is trying to be passed off as believable and when they know something we don't, hence why i said foolish, as they would have to be thick to make a claim that grand without being able to back it up. It would do more harm then good.

Bill Gates announced that Windows 95 "true multi-tasking, for the first time" (or words to that effect).

And all the Unix and VMS programmers snorted.

+1 caitlyn

Patrick, if you don't know the old line about selling the Brooklyn Bridge to someone you are young.

What I am saying is that I don't believe Ubuntu's number for a New York minute. It's corporate hype. If you believe Canonical is different from other companies in this respect you are incredibly gullible. Is that a clearer way of putting it?

Or you are just older, either-or.

Yes thats clearer. However i am not just blindly accepting their press announcements at face value. They have been making a lot of shapes towards the mainstream lately so I'm getting a sense they are planning something big over the coming year. Sure it could be bull, but in this case they have little reason to lie without damaging their image if they have no plans to deliver. I like how you added 'in this respect' before your thinly veiled insult in an attempt to be in some way diplomatic. You are learning i see ;)

Corporations lie all the time; they have a special word for it: "marketing". They don't worry about damaging their image; building hype is something they always try to do, and if things don't work out, they'll just quietly change plans, and since most people have such short memories it does little to their reputation. Look at all the bull that Microsoft has spewed about upcoming products, only to not deliver on their promises over and over again.

@Khamul i guess that is true, they could just spin it off as "we shifted our focus to a smaller market audience" or something. Its something i see with vaporous companies a lot and larger companies like samsung and Microsoft but canonical aren't at that level yet i would have said. At any rate I'm going with Fettoosh on this one.

Quoting:Corporations lie all the time; they have a special word for it: "marketing".

What he said. Besides, it's not a lie. It's a goal. They will do their best to meet it. It's just absolutely impossible in the current market.

Quoting:They will do their best to meet it. It's just absolutely impossible in the current market.

At least, if they intend to do so via OEM installs, and don't have some other plan that involves new markets/paradigms. The Ubuntu for Android being an example of a new paradigm, that may or may not be viable for them.

traceyanne: I think Ubuntu is more than a day late to the device game and any realistic chance of competing with existing Android deployments. At least with Mark Shuttleworth's wealth I can't accuse them of being "a dollar short".