What will happen at 2%?
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| hkwint May 29, 2009 12:19 PM EDT |
At the current rate, the market share of Linux grows (relative) 2.4% every month; at least in the Western world. At this rate we'll see 2% in exactly two years; May 2011. That's taking into account old fashioned desk- and laptops as well, for netbooks figures are different. What will happen when the familiar and save Google interface hits Linux netbooks? Because nobody associates Google with viruses. And if ARM and MIPS are coming? If WSJ journalists learn to manage CUPS? What adds will we see then? Or - the unimaginable - when Dell recommends Linux? Be my guest, take the space below to fantasize about the great MS adds that may be coming. |
| caitlyn May 29, 2009 12:22 PM EDT |
MIPS is already here. See: http://broadcast.oreilly.com/2009/05/the-mips-processor-and-... That article should show up here on LXer.com soon. ARM is right around the corner. It's probably closer to 10% than 1%. When they claim 2% maybe we'll reach 20%. |
| tuxchick May 29, 2009 12:25 PM EDT |
We may also expect to see the trickle of Linux anti-malware snake oil I mean product ads escalate to a torrent. |
| hkwint May 29, 2009 12:30 PM EDT |
Quoting:It's probably closer to 10% than 1%. When they claim 2% maybe we'll reach 20%. I didn't mention I was using figures collected by NetApps and former Xitimonitor - and these figures come from their apps on websites of their clients, mainly in France and USA. We should be asking MSI, Asus & co for better numbers I guess. I have been trying to contact Taiwan to ask for such numbers, but I was stuck in Chinese voice-menus and the weekend just started (for some reason I always start working Friday afternoon). |
| tracyanne May 29, 2009 7:13 PM EDT |
Will will remain at 1% until one day we wake up and discover, surprise, it's now reported to be 25%, and every one will go what happened where did this Linux phenomenon come from. |
| Scott_Ruecker May 29, 2009 7:18 PM EDT |
Isn't 2% really just a nice way of saying 100%? It is statistics we are talking about right? 2% just means we've begun to dominate.. ;-) |
| Steven_Rosenber May 29, 2009 8:16 PM EDT |
The key is WHICH 1 percent or 2 percent we're talking about. In the Windows PC vs. Mac comparison, many many more Windows laptops are sold overall than those from Apple running OS X, but when you talk about high-end (and high-profit) models north of $1,000, Apple has a much larger share of that market and is probably making a whole lot more per unit than is any Windows-PC manufacturer. And a different sort of person buys and uses a Mac. Make that different sorts, since there are way more than one kind of Mac person (and they don't all look like that Mac guy in the commercials). In the same way, there are probably a whole gaggle of "types" who use FOSS operating systems, and while our numbers are not staggering, many if not most of us have influence far outweighing that of the average Windows or Mac user, since most of us are more technically savvy, have positions in which we purchase, maintain and use lots of equipment, and can take a junked PC and make it useful very quickly. And we're loud and have forums like this one ... So smart companies (or ones that are smart at times, such as Dell) know that catering to the Linux market isn't just a way to sell a few machines with a non-MS operating system but instead a way to get the geeky populace feeling better about your company as a whole and perhaps influencing yourselves and others to do more business with it. |
| number6x May 31, 2009 1:30 PM EDT |
Even if Linux stays at the same percentage, it is growing. The total number of computers in use each year is still expanding, so you can increase total installations without growth. Back in the late 70's Apple was the market share leader. It took them 4 years to sell their 1 Millionth Apple II. They started selling them in April 1977 and sold their 1 millionth Apple II in 1981. Now that they have only %5 (or what ever) of the market those smart tech pundits think Apple is going out of business. There is a big problem with that. Apple now sells between 10 and 15 Million computers a quarter! They used to be the market leader. Now they are a much larger and more profitable company. So Linux is growing at a phenomenal pace because it is growing at a pace greater than the overall market place is. |
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