Microsoft denies Novell deal is breach of GPL

Could this end up pushing acceptance of GPL v3? It seems that this is just the threat that was talked about during discussions about whether certain measures should be implemented via the GPL. Or is it too little, too late?

Does seem to be a good strategy (on Microsoft's end) of divide and conquer. Split up distributions, split developers, and in the end either assimilate or be sued by M$.

Not to little to late. The moment Novell distributes anything GNU under GPL v3 in something covered by the MS deal they will probably be in violation.

No, they won't be in violation. You have to remember that they circumvented the GPL by making the agreement between Microsoft and Novell's customers. Iow, Microsoft is promising not to sue Novell's customers. There is no patent license involved. I believe that the same applies under GPLv3, although such agreements would be all but redundant.