My crystal ball is out of order

Story: Living Through the Wild West of FOSS HistoryTotal Replies: 6
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Sep 21, 2010
3:49 PM EDT
Scott, take a look at articles that are five or six years old, let alone ones from the 1990s, and their predictions about FOSS in general and Linux in particular. They are remarkably consistent in that while the predictions were all over the map just about all of them were wrong. I'm not going to guess about five years from now let alone 20 or 30. My crystal ball is out of order. Changes in hardware could completely change the landscape, just as netbooks did and tablets are starting to do. My best guess is that whatever we think is going to happen the end result will be different :)

Oh, and yeah, I share your view of Oracle and the likelihood that in addition to their software business and the hardware business they bought from Sun they are likely to open a third business line: their patent trolling business. Fun, fun, fun...

Sep 21, 2010
4:01 PM EDT
I think it's grown well beyond the user and contributor community who care about software freedom and open code, and it's reaching a much bigger audience as the hidden engine in a lot of specialized devices. More people than ever are using Linux, but they don't know it and don't care.

Wireless mobile is everything. Look for quaint old wires to disappear.

Remote services are going to win, and the idea of running your own server is going to become ever-more laughable, though the emergence of cool little devices running embedded FOSS servers like Pogo Plug makes it easier. But we still have to contend with hostile ISPs who don't want us to run our own servers.

The telcos are our biggest enemies. Maybe it's time to take wireless peer mesh seriously.

Sep 21, 2010
4:22 PM EDT
I can't remember where I saw the article that showed how the dramatic growth in mobile devices, many if not most of which run some form of Linux, is changing the computing landscape in much the same way as the personal computer did in the '80s and '90s, when we moved away from the mainframe/time-share model. Now the stand-alone desktop and laptop computer is being overtaken in sheer numbers by mobile in the form of smartphones and other small, portable devices.

Sep 22, 2010
2:36 AM EDT
Quoting:Maybe it's time to take wireless peer mesh seriously.

Hell yes! I'm actually a little surprised that it isn't widespread yet. I guess you can't make easy money on that so there was no incentive. But maybe Debian's FreedomBox could pave the way...

Sep 22, 2010
11:19 PM EDT
I am not sure if I have a crystal ball or not Caitlyn.. I will agree that wireless mesh networks will be interesting to see develop.

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades..;-)

Sep 23, 2010
3:05 AM EDT
"Please sir tell me why my life's so pitiful but the future's so bright? Well I'd look ahead but it burns my retinas."

Sep 23, 2010
5:12 PM EDT
If it weren't a violation of my ISP's terms of service, I'd gladly set up an ad-hoc "freenet" node.

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