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Story: Windows 8, the post-PC world, and Linux: Microsoft will prevailTotal Replies: 12
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Nov 01, 2012
6:54 AM EDT
It seems to me that this particular writer has already (carefully ?; deliberately ?) omitted an important fact: the total number of Android computers will outstrip Windows based computers by 2016 (if I remember correctly) according to Gartner. The information I have so far suggests that Microsoft is already steadily losing the desktop/laptop markets to smartphones and pads and the loss rate will accelerate. Hence Redmond's almost hysterical attempts to break into the smartphone and pad markets (and the glowing reports about Winbased phones or pads from Microsoft reporters).

WinXP migration to Linux is irrelevant although any migration to a Linux based system is a useful bonus. The next generation of users is locked onto one of two systems: Android or iOS..........Microsoft isn't on the train - it was left behind several stations ago. I'm probably totally wrong, but that's how I see it at the moment.

2c :-)

Nov 01, 2012
7:30 AM EDT

We have yet to see either android or IOS doing the kind of work that PCs do today. Maybe it will happen, but...

I still see developers and graphics artists using their Macs running OSX. I still see managers crunching their spreadsheets on PCs running (grr) Windows.

I see no reason to believe that some version of that will continue to be the case for a while.

Tech hysteria aside, useful technologies tend not to die out easily, though they may be relegated to the areas they do best as newer tech comes along for other spaces.

Nov 01, 2012
8:05 AM EDT
Yes Dinotrac.......I threw in the above statement just to test the waters to see what others thought. There is this other aspect though: The new generation knows Android, it doesn't know Windows......AS they come up through the ranks, they are going to expect Android (or a Linux OS that resembles Android) to do what they want. I'd strongly suspect that Google and others won't disappoint them. Perhaps the Chromebook is the first domino in the sequence ? There could in fact be a complete paradigm shift; although given my native tendencies to prefer a computer of my own that does everything, the Linux DE and the Macs seem to be the big winners. Whatever, it's all hypothetical but fascinating to watch.

Nov 01, 2012
8:44 AM EDT
@rid -

Why do you think the new generation doesn't know Windows (or Mac)?

How do you think they're doing their homework assignments? What do you think their schools and libraries are chock full of ?

Nov 01, 2012
9:20 AM EDT
You both are correct. Dino is talking about Inertia and Ridcully is talking about Momentum.

Give it time, MS is heavy inertia resisting change while Open source is light and dynamic gaining momentum. :-)


Nov 01, 2012
9:31 AM EDT
@fettoosh -

I think there's a lot more going on that inertia and momentum. There is also a matter of some tools work better for some things than others.

Does that mean I expect the Mac and Windows PC to last forever? Of course not, just that IOS and Android, as presently delivered, don't seem to be targetting that space.


I don't know that anything keeps them from doing it, however.


Nov 01, 2012
10:30 AM EDT
Quoting:I think there's a lot more going on that inertia and momentum.

Agreed, many different factors. Couple important ones I think are changing the landscape of computing are

a. MS no longer have the field for itself without any competition for so long

b. At the its current level of excellence, Open Source is very attractive low cost alternative to Windows for start-ups and established alike. No entity any longer needs to kiss MS hands like they used to. IT vendors are being liberated.


Nov 01, 2012
10:41 AM EDT
> IT vendors are being liberated.

And woo-hoo to that!

Nov 01, 2012
12:27 PM EDT
Well, given the brief research I did I found LOTS of Windows related articles by this guy and very few Linux. Second, the assumption that the IT datacenter is littered with Windows servers is dead wrong. They are usually only there to keep Windows software running (vendor lock-in, anyone?). Most webservers and databaseservers are powered by Linux - even in MS-infested Holland.

Nov 01, 2012
2:24 PM EDT
I finally read the article and the author makes good logical points. But, I have one simple thought he missed considering. The majority of PC users, in business or at home (personal), are information and data consumers.

A full fledged Desktop PC is really not necessary when tablets are able to run any of the applications they use in their present day to day workflow. Consequently, servers become the more critical factor in IT. Considering its proven scalability, reliability, robustness, lower TCO etc., which the author totally missed or ignored all these advantages, Linux is a much better server than Windows.

Whether we like it or hate it, the way I see it, cloud computing is coming to businesses and large organizations like governments and academia. If the cost is justifiable, it will be in the form of private or outsourced shared clouds depending on the organization.


Nov 01, 2012
4:41 PM EDT
He also trots out the idea that Linux marketshare on the desktop is 1.1% based on... are you ready... a single web counter. Now, let's look at where I work. We have hundreds of thin client and desktop Linux installs, soon to be thousands, and I can count the number of them which have open Internet access on the fingers of my hands. That number will increase, probably by quite a bit, but it hasn't yet.

Intranet access? Sure. Some organizational websites that also face outward? Yep. Open Internet access? Not a chance. Guess what? There are tons of businesses, government agencies and organizations with similar policies. The chance of a web counter being aware of these systems? Zero.

Now, lets look at systems in the organization that do have Internet access, both Windows and Linux. They go through a proxy. Access to sites deemed not necessary to business are blocked. That includes any and all external e-mail sites, for example. Facebook? Not permitted. YouTube? Not a chance. Many web counters generally only count paying customers. What are the chances their customers are blocked? Quite good.

As I wrote in an article for O'Reilly three years ago, if you do the math based on market share numbers Linux was somewhere between 6% and 8%. Windows, according to Microsoft's own number, was 84%, not 91%. I don't believe for a New York minute that Linux marketshare has deteriorated since then.

Now... are tablets and netbooks considered desktops? It depends who you ask. What share of each now run Android? In the case of tablets Android is over 50% of the market. Android is still a Linux distribution.

If you start with a false premise you get fallacious results, which is just what this article does. You can trust the conclusion as much as you can trust the source of that 1.1% number, which is to say not at all.

Nov 01, 2012
5:11 PM EDT
@Dino.....sorry at my lapse, I nearly went to sleep at my desk after a happy day's chainsawing heavy logs for the slow combustion stove. It's now early morning again. I've taken a look at what others have written and to be honest, I don't think I could add anything more. I like your comment on the vendors too.....OEMs are the key to removing the Microsoft monopoly, but they in turn have to be convinced that they have a really viable option other than the "Voleware" OS. The next 5 years will be fascinating to watch. I won't be buying MSFT though.

Nov 01, 2012
5:21 PM EDT
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