Repeated good numbers, meaningless bad numbers

Story: Linux Now Has "Double" the Market Share of Windows Total Replies: 3
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Jan 22, 2013
6:50 PM EDT
First we have the 1% number for the Linux desktop again, this time measured by NetApplications. Well... corporate desktops generally don't show up on NetApplications and we know that Forrester Research measured the Linux share of the corporate desktop at 9% in samles. All the NetAppkications number tells us is that what they measure is mainly Windows. It tells us absolutely nothing about the desktop OS market share of Linux or anything else.

Then we have the Goldman Sachs number on total market. Is it trustworthy? Maybe. What does it mean? Linux is ubiquitous in some form or another even if people don't know it's Linux. It's funny to watch the Windows crowd scramble for reasons why Linux really isn't successful and grasp at straws

Jan 22, 2013
7:02 PM EDT
The forward projection by Goldman Sachs is highly questionable in my opinion. Android use has exploded to a current 42% of devices in the last 3-4 years and yet the projection is for this to stabilize and even drop while M$ increases due to Windows Phone uptake. That is based on what?

I think it more likely Android will continue strongly growing to perhaps 60% share and Windows may shrink dramatically. Let us see if I am right or Goldman Bloody Sachs. My opinion is based on trend persistence. What is Goldman Sachs based on???

Jan 22, 2013
9:13 PM EDT
Quoting:What is Goldman Sachs based on???

There you have it, the article admits "Much of those projections are based on crystal ball evaluations "


Jan 22, 2013
10:27 PM EDT
@montezuma: I don't disagree with you. What I was agreeing with was the explosive growth of Linux, largely through Android devices and, in recent months, in ChromeOS, which the Goldman Sachs numbers don't include. I do see some fracturing of the current duopoly in the mobile device market, but I think it's far more likely that Blackberry 10 will make inroads than Windows Phone. Government contracts and a fairly compelling product, especially in the area of security, help RIM. Blackberry is also still the best choice for people who prefer a physical keyboard. What makes Windows Phone compelling? I'm not sure there is anything that does.

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