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It Will Never Be the Year of Desktop Linux
There is always talk about this year or that year being the year of desktop Linux, where suddenly consumers and vendors alike will greet GNU/Linux with open arms and wonder why they hadn't adopted Tux years before. It won't happen that way! Don't get me wrong, though. I do foresee in time Linux will be a much larger player in the consumer and enterprise desktop markets, most likely dominating in the very areas naysayers would prefer not to see Linux succeed. The chicken-and-egg problems are hatching already, accelerating faster and faster to larger numbers of adoption. The question is what do we consider the tipping point? At what percentage do we say Linux can be considered generally accepted? Among other major milestones, Linux met two more just recently: 1% of retail sales and Microsoft's own SEC filings stating Linux is dangerous to its business. Linux is already quite easy to use, and, when hardware manufacturers aren't lazy, a wide range of consumer hardware is already 100% usable with Linux. Aren't we there yet? Not yet, at least not enough to call it The Year of the Penguin. I liken the advance of GNU/Linux on the desktop to the solid/liquid state of glass. Because of its unique structure, glass doesn't have a single melting or boiling point, unlike most other matter. Only with the application of heat does glass begin to take on more of the dynamics of a liquid and become pliable. Some will say that glass is actually a supercooled liquid, just like some will say desktop Linux is already there but needs more time to "catch on". Either way, glass takes constant heat in order for it to slowly take a more liquid form. In much the same way, I foresee desktop Linux needing "heat" over time for it to slowly dominate the desktop market. In this case, "heat" is continued technical advances in the code, increasing advocacy, and marketing. In fact, I would dare state this is a better environment for Linux to thrive where there isn't a sudden influx of users that aren't used to Linux and are expecting it to be exactly like what they just left. Just like trying to manipulate glass before it is pliable enough, there would be a tremendous strain on volunteer developers and communities to help support these folks. Something would have to give, either turning a majority of them off of Linux or commercializing Linux to the point it would barely be distinguishable from proprietary software. Rather, a gradual uptake would keep allowing Linux' roots to grow deeper as an already mature foundation gets even better. There are many pieces just waiting to drop into place; such as maturing directory and policy services (e.g. the 389 Directory Server); a marketing push, whether community or commercially driven; and a stable driver framework in the kernel, which is implemented but in a state of flux from release to release. With each piece that finally drops cleanly into place, there will be an increase in uptake and a greater inertia built up for GNU/Linux to press forward. For those wishing desktop Linux to have that year where it all just happens, it won't. Don't be disheartened, though. Instead, enjoy each cumulative victory as an advance to the time where people will suddenly realize desktop Linux is "there". |
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Comments (39)
how serendipitous!
3 earlier comments in the full thread.
Good read, to paraphrase, and one aptly suited to the MS suits
Linux is like rust, once it starts you cant ever get rid of it. It slowly moves until it consumes every little bit. It is insipid in it trek from here to there. much like the dust you breath in the air. Cough as you may, cough as you might, even ghandi predicted the end of our fight.
OK pathetic poetic moment done. Good thing I don't rely on that talent to pay the bills.
Linux is like rust, once it starts you cant ever get rid of it. It slowly moves until it consumes every little bit. It is insipid in it trek from here to there. much like the dust you breath in the air. Cough as you may, cough as you might, even ghandi predicted the end of our fight.
OK pathetic poetic moment done. Good thing I don't rely on that talent to pay the bills.
Az you are a poet.
"Linux is like mold.... "Linux is like fungus... "Linux is like dry-rot.... "Linux is like tooth decay.... "Linux is like entropy...
"Linux is like mold.... "Linux is like fungus... "Linux is like dry-rot.... "Linux is like tooth decay.... "Linux is like entropy...
Yuck! Have you ever tried to sell tooth decay, tuxchick? Please, spare those analogies. I could see a Microsoft FUDmeister using them.
Replace mold with cheese or penicillin. Yes, I know those are molds but they don't conjure up the negative imagery that the word mold does.
Better yet, replace fungus with mushrooms and put them on a pizza.
Replace mold with cheese or penicillin. Yes, I know those are molds but they don't conjure up the negative imagery that the word mold does.
Better yet, replace fungus with mushrooms and put them on a pizza.
>> "Linux is like mold....
>> Replace mold with cheese or penicillin.
Mmmm. Cheese.
>> "Linux is like fungus...
Mmmm. Mushrooms.
>> "Linux is like dry-rot....
Mmmm...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I got nothin'.
>> Replace mold with cheese or penicillin.
Mmmm. Cheese.
>> "Linux is like fungus...
Mmmm. Mushrooms.
>> "Linux is like dry-rot....
Mmmm...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I got nothin'.
Yep. Dry rot and tooth decay just can't be made appealing.
I never was any good with catchy slogans or product names, which probably explains why my tasty nutrition beverage, "I Can't Believe It's Not Sewage", didn't succeed.
1999 was the year of the Linux desktop!
(For Me)
I started using Linux in '97 but it became my main desktop in '99. SuSE with Applixware, very nice.
(For Me)
I started using Linux in '97 but it became my main desktop in '99. SuSE with Applixware, very nice.
You say "dry rot." I say "campfire fuel."
You say "tooth decay." I say "putting the dentist's kids through college."
You say "tooth decay." I say "putting the dentist's kids through college."
> "putting the dentist's kids through college."
Our pediatric dentist asked me if we'd started saving for the boy's braces yet.
He's 2.
That does not bode well....
Our pediatric dentist asked me if we'd started saving for the boy's braces yet.
He's 2.
That does not bode well....
Quoting:Linux is like rust, once it starts you cant ever get rid of it. It slowly moves until it consumes every little bit. It is insipid in it trek from here to there. much like the dust you breath in the air. Cough as you may, cough as you might, even ghandi predicted the end of our fight.Indeed! ... and with this another invocation of the infamous quote from Mohandas Gandhi : First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/mohandasga103630....)
tuxchick: Surprising, since energy drinks that taste like what I'd imagine sewage would taste like are all the rage now.
Ya know, I was such a physics geek in college, and I think it shows. :-/
Here is Tech Headline for this thread:
[aka Spoken Like a True Presstitute*]
YBT
* Not mine, it was the favorite line of a History Professor I knew that was a reporter.
Quoting: "Linux thrives on a diet of penicillin pizza with no dough" Poisoned by toxic fungus toppings that rots everyone's teeth. Windows is the only safe recourse!S.L.a.T.P.
[aka Spoken Like a True Presstitute*]
YBT
* Not mine, it was the favorite line of a History Professor I knew that was a reporter.
Quoting:"Linux thrives on a diet of penicillin pizza
Reading that too fast makes one wonder what the heck Penicilinilla is, some kind of new mozzarella Mozilla?
It's a mixture of Bleu Cheese and vanilla, of course.
Ow. Ow. Ow. The pain of puns, owww.
Ok actually I'm laughing, but I'll never admit it.
Ok actually I'm laughing, but I'll never admit it.
Anyone know the text equivalent of stomping off in disgust that I can use until html 5 arrives for most browsers? I am turned off by the gross misuse of my one-liners.
YBT
YBT
We are strong in the punnicilin: the moldy oldies.
If Linux is rust - then according to "Neil Young & a mental horse" Linux never sleeps so that may be correct. If somebody would add Alu + potassium manganate, thermite would be produced and Linux could power spacecrafts.
If Linux is mold, then sure it will kill a bacteria like Microsofia Coli and it will rot away Apples as well.
If Linux is like entropy, then Gogol (By some ignorant Americans pronounced as 'google', which is only 10^100) is small compared to it, because for entropy calculations you need "Einsteins big number estimates". With really large entropy, factors such as Google can even be neglected without dramatically changing the outcome of calculations.
If Linux is like tooth decay then Sabayon (named from the sweet desert Zabaglione) would inherently be bad for Linux. As a protective measure, its package management is called 'entropy' (coincidence doesn't exist does it?)
Nah, I'm still not convinced what Linux is. I'd say "It's in the clouds"; equal to how the inhabitants of Tuvalu described their .tv TLD.
If Linux is mold, then sure it will kill a bacteria like Microsofia Coli and it will rot away Apples as well.
If Linux is like entropy, then Gogol (By some ignorant Americans pronounced as 'google', which is only 10^100) is small compared to it, because for entropy calculations you need "Einsteins big number estimates". With really large entropy, factors such as Google can even be neglected without dramatically changing the outcome of calculations.
If Linux is like tooth decay then Sabayon (named from the sweet desert Zabaglione) would inherently be bad for Linux. As a protective measure, its package management is called 'entropy' (coincidence doesn't exist does it?)
Nah, I'm still not convinced what Linux is. I'd say "It's in the clouds"; equal to how the inhabitants of Tuvalu described their .tv TLD.
We are in the year of GNU/Linux
I agree (kind of) that there will never be a "victory point" in which GNU/Linux suddenly captures like 50+% percent of the market in 12 months. It's impossible. However, with all due respect, we are IN the year of GNU/Linux. Maybe we just don't feel like it ^_^.
First of, GNU/Linux now have major distros in all platforms, from the big iron (aka super computer) down to the little iron (Smartphone). Okay, it's been there forever, but the distros are relatively quiet (how many people actually know that their routers are running Linux?) However, with the showoff of Google against Apple, now everyone knows Linux is officially everywhere.
Secondly, Linux is mentioned everywhere. Actually, we don't really need positive reviews, you know. Like Obama against McCain, we only need to be mentioned. And, guess what, Open Source is being promoted as the solution for the economic downturn. Yeah, our dear "friends" will do their best to argue that Open Source and Linux are dangerous, and Free Software has no value whatsoever. Remember how McCain tried to convince people that Obama is clueless about economics? (again, who is REALLY clueless here?) Yeah, just like that. They can throw all kind of FUD around, but this time, we have big ally.
The ally is: Economic Downturn. Usually, good people are only loved in hard time, since they generally don't like to flatter and monkey around. Similarly, Democrats have been pushing for their agenda since the beginning of last century; Libertarians have been around forever; Green, um, may be longer than Libertarians. Yet, Republicans won, since they know how to market, and in good time, people tend to believe in marketing. In bad times, like now, ha, flattering carries you only that far.
Lastly, GNU/Linux mature IN COMPARISON TO Windows and Macintosh. Once upon the time, I need to downgrade the whole system from 64-bit to 32-bit, then compile a kernel module to talk to a driver for my wireless card (like 2 years ago, Broadcom nightmare). Once upon a time, "installing software" in GNU/Linux means "./configure;make;make install". Once upon a time, I forgot to mount NTFS partition as read-only, and destroyed it. Once upon a time, CLI is a must. That's how bad GNU/Linux is compared to Windows. Okay, granted, I still go to CLI from time to time (I absolutely not stand Nethack's GUI, for example), but I can live comfortably in GUI, doing all kind of work and entertainment. That's the growth of GNU/Linux.
Thus, 2009 IS the year of GNU/Linux. Okay, maybe a bit of late 2008 and early 2010, too, but who care. The point is, GNU/Linux is REALLY REALLY ready for mass adoption. Okay, granted, a great push toward adoption of a product is generally a single-vendor activity, but we can do that, too. Earlier this year, Linux Foundation launched "I am Linux" video contest, which is a step toward the right direction. Guys, we need stuffs like that. Imagine if Ubuntu, Fedora, OpenSUSE, and a few more distros announce a campaign to educate GNU/Linux in 2 months; or FAT patents are declared stupid, and Microsoft is handed a hefty fine; or FSF wins a major case in software patent; or GNOME and KDE announce something a theme contest (Gosh, time to prove that Apple's taste is actually pretty bad); etc. These create NOISES, and these noises will ultimately bring us chances to educate people about GNU/Linux, and convert them to our side.
Again, THIS is the year of GNU/Linux. Well, if you believe so, and act accordingly.
Read the whole commentFirst of, GNU/Linux now have major distros in all platforms, from the big iron (aka super computer) down to the little iron (Smartphone). Okay, it's been there forever, but the distros are relatively quiet (how many people actually know that their routers are running Linux?) However, with the showoff of Google against Apple, now everyone knows Linux is officially everywhere.
Secondly, Linux is mentioned everywhere. Actually, we don't really need positive reviews, you know. Like Obama against McCain, we only need to be mentioned. And, guess what, Open Source is being promoted as the solution for the economic downturn. Yeah, our dear "friends" will do their best to argue that Open Source and Linux are dangerous, and Free Software has no value whatsoever. Remember how McCain tried to convince people that Obama is clueless about economics? (again, who is REALLY clueless here?) Yeah, just like that. They can throw all kind of FUD around, but this time, we have big ally.
The ally is: Economic Downturn. Usually, good people are only loved in hard time, since they generally don't like to flatter and monkey around. Similarly, Democrats have been pushing for their agenda since the beginning of last century; Libertarians have been around forever; Green, um, may be longer than Libertarians. Yet, Republicans won, since they know how to market, and in good time, people tend to believe in marketing. In bad times, like now, ha, flattering carries you only that far.
Lastly, GNU/Linux mature IN COMPARISON TO Windows and Macintosh. Once upon the time, I need to downgrade the whole system from 64-bit to 32-bit, then compile a kernel module to talk to a driver for my wireless card (like 2 years ago, Broadcom nightmare). Once upon a time, "installing software" in GNU/Linux means "./configure;make;make install". Once upon a time, I forgot to mount NTFS partition as read-only, and destroyed it. Once upon a time, CLI is a must. That's how bad GNU/Linux is compared to Windows. Okay, granted, I still go to CLI from time to time (I absolutely not stand Nethack's GUI, for example), but I can live comfortably in GUI, doing all kind of work and entertainment. That's the growth of GNU/Linux.
Thus, 2009 IS the year of GNU/Linux. Okay, maybe a bit of late 2008 and early 2010, too, but who care. The point is, GNU/Linux is REALLY REALLY ready for mass adoption. Okay, granted, a great push toward adoption of a product is generally a single-vendor activity, but we can do that, too. Earlier this year, Linux Foundation launched "I am Linux" video contest, which is a step toward the right direction. Guys, we need stuffs like that. Imagine if Ubuntu, Fedora, OpenSUSE, and a few more distros announce a campaign to educate GNU/Linux in 2 months; or FAT patents are declared stupid, and Microsoft is handed a hefty fine; or FSF wins a major case in software patent; or GNOME and KDE announce something a theme contest (Gosh, time to prove that Apple's taste is actually pretty bad); etc. These create NOISES, and these noises will ultimately bring us chances to educate people about GNU/Linux, and convert them to our side.
Again, THIS is the year of GNU/Linux. Well, if you believe so, and act accordingly.
I disagree. This is the era of desktop Linux.
When looking at a logistic curve, there are only bends; no peaks.
The only thing that 'peeked' is the market share of Windows; so a safe assumption would be that 2009 is not going to be the year of Windows. Not really safe because of Win7, but still rather safe.
The only thing that 'peeked' is the market share of Windows; so a safe assumption would be that 2009 is not going to be the year of Windows. Not really safe because of Win7, but still rather safe.
I disagree too
I label this 'the era of pathetic coming out labels.'
so we can now have the 'year' of linux and the 'year' of windows all wrapped up into the year of butt monkeys.
I guess you can tell where you can carry your 'year of ' predictions now.
I label this 'the era of pathetic coming out labels.'
so we can now have the 'year' of linux and the 'year' of windows all wrapped up into the year of butt monkeys.
I guess you can tell where you can carry your 'year of ' predictions now.
I hate to burst everyone's bubble where Windows 7 is concerned. But I've just been looking at it and It looks to me like it's basically an improved WinXP SP3. By that I mean they've taken the best of the glitz from Vista (It really does owe a lot to KDE4) and married it to what is basically XP SP3, it's even possible to revert to the so called Classic desktop (aka Win 98) which gives you a look that is similar to Win XP with the Classic desktop... Vista won't revert to that desktop, we've tried, at work. Also selecting the Best performance option in Control Panel --> System --. Advanced --> Performance, yields you the same Win98 (the Classic0 desktop as I have on my XP machine at work.
My guess is that Microsoft have listened to the feed back, the fact that people love Wind XP, and given them Win XP SP4 and called it Windows 7. This would explain why the basic in stall of Windows 7 Ultimate doesn't use much more disk space than a basic install of WinXP with SP3 service pack applied, 7 Gig, which though big by Linux standards... A full install of Ubuntu with full office packages and the Gimp and the rest of the stuff you get on a basic Linux install doesn't take up that much space, it's true, but compared to Vista, that's lightweight.
In the end it is just Windows, it's not something to get excited about 9although the Windows fanboys will trumpet it as the new sliced bread), it looks prettier than XP, and is more accessible, by virtue of the fact that it is probably a nicely warmed over XP, Vista, which is a regular pain in the bit you sit upon. But because it is basically WinXP, I don't think Microsoft will get all that many complaints about it.
Read the whole commentMy guess is that Microsoft have listened to the feed back, the fact that people love Wind XP, and given them Win XP SP4 and called it Windows 7. This would explain why the basic in stall of Windows 7 Ultimate doesn't use much more disk space than a basic install of WinXP with SP3 service pack applied, 7 Gig, which though big by Linux standards... A full install of Ubuntu with full office packages and the Gimp and the rest of the stuff you get on a basic Linux install doesn't take up that much space, it's true, but compared to Vista, that's lightweight.
In the end it is just Windows, it's not something to get excited about 9although the Windows fanboys will trumpet it as the new sliced bread), it looks prettier than XP, and is more accessible, by virtue of the fact that it is probably a nicely warmed over XP, Vista, which is a regular pain in the bit you sit upon. But because it is basically WinXP, I don't think Microsoft will get all that many complaints about it.
I've played with Windows 7 a little bit in a virtual machine (couldn't get networking going). It's better, obviously, than Vista. It's much more responsive and has the feel of XP. They got rid of the default hideous black and went with sane colors. It's designed IMO to be sold as an improved XP.
It's still Windows, still a resource hog, but - depending on what the final product looks like - is probably not a compelling reason to look at alternative operating systems. OTOH, I saw little about Windows 7 that would stop someone from moving to Linux if she was already considering doing so.
It's still Windows, still a resource hog, but - depending on what the final product looks like - is probably not a compelling reason to look at alternative operating systems. OTOH, I saw little about Windows 7 that would stop someone from moving to Linux if she was already considering doing so.
I agree with bigg, there is nothing about Windows 7 that make any difference to the movement to Linux, it won't speed it up, and it won't slow it down. I can foresee all the same problems that affect Windows currently surfacing at some point in time, no doubt the repair shops will have time set aside for book ins at 6 monthly cycles from time of sale, the Anti Virus companies will make their money, and their products will be just as ineffective.
Basically Windows 7 is a big non event. That will be, by virtue of marketing and advertising made to seem somewhat relevent. It does however give Those who've stuck with WinXP what appears to be an upgrade path.
Basically Windows 7 is a big non event. That will be, by virtue of marketing and advertising made to seem somewhat relevent. It does however give Those who've stuck with WinXP what appears to be an upgrade path.
I posted this on another thread, but I'll post it here as well:
Well, you could define the year of Linux at the point it hits 10%, 25% or 50% marketshare.
Right now, its desktop marketshare is increasing less than 1% per year according to this website: http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php
I plotted a chart you can see here: http://keithcu.com/LinuxDesktopGrowth.png
Well, you could define the year of Linux at the point it hits 10%, 25% or 50% marketshare.
Right now, its desktop marketshare is increasing less than 1% per year according to this website: http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php
I plotted a chart you can see here: http://keithcu.com/LinuxDesktopGrowth.png
I can show you other websites that would dispute that less than 1% growth. Certainly last year's netbook sales would have caused more than a 1% bump. Accurate numbers are almost impossible to come by and many of them are skewed to minimize Linux marketshare.
Also, it will never be the year of GNU/Linux or the era of GNU/Linux because, with the exception of the FSF faithful, nobody calls it that. It's just Linux.
Also, it will never be the year of GNU/Linux or the era of GNU/Linux because, with the exception of the FSF faithful, nobody calls it that. It's just Linux.
It will be the year of GNU/OpenOffice.org/GNOME/KDE/Java/GIMP/Emacs/Firefox/Thunderbird Linux. Of course even that doesn't give credit for most of the software that came with my distribution. Guess maybe we should stick to using names to identify a product rather than attribute credit for its creation.
> It does however give Those who've stuck with WinXP what appears to be an upgrade path.
I agree. They've apparently tweaked the Vista kernel enough that it will now operate on new machines as well as XP did on 3 year old machines, which means users of XP can now upgrade with only the usual loss of some older peripherals and programs. Which is all anyone has ever expected from Windows.
In comparison, Vista involved the loss of numerous peripherals and programs, and included a significant performance degradation, even on new hardware.
I agree. They've apparently tweaked the Vista kernel enough that it will now operate on new machines as well as XP did on 3 year old machines, which means users of XP can now upgrade with only the usual loss of some older peripherals and programs. Which is all anyone has ever expected from Windows.
In comparison, Vista involved the loss of numerous peripherals and programs, and included a significant performance degradation, even on new hardware.
Quoting: I can show you other websites that would dispute that less than 1% growth.
Thanks Caitlyn, I'm getting really bored with citations referring to that same old dumb much-debunked 1% figure. Years ago even IDC and Gartner were releasing higher figures for Linux desktop penetration.
TC -
I am getting a wee bit bothered, though, by one thing.
I would bet that we could go through the archives of LinuxToday -- the old LinuxToday -- and find ten year old threads that match this one nearly verbatim. At some point, shouldn't the conversations move forward?
I am getting a wee bit bothered, though, by one thing.
I would bet that we could go through the archives of LinuxToday -- the old LinuxToday -- and find ten year old threads that match this one nearly verbatim. At some point, shouldn't the conversations move forward?
That's a fair question, dino. As there have been a lot of articles recently on both LT and LXer recently debunking the 1% figure, as well as several related figures like MSI's infamously bogus 4x higher return rate, I wonder why the wrong (or at the least highly questionable figures) have such a sticky persistence. I guess it's the same old FUD/propaganda dilemma: how much countering it is too much?
Quoting:Right now, its desktop marketshare is increasing less than 1% per year according to this website: [HYPERLINK@www.w3counter.com]
Do you really think Chinese people do read English webpages? I don't. Therefore, statistics from both w3counter, NetApplications and Xitimonitor are all flawed; except when it comes to marketshare in Western countries.
Even then those numbers are questionable as most of the times it's not specified how they are measured. If I visit the same page 100 times, does it count for 100? Do they count IP's? MAC-addresses? Do they count boxes ore humans? Silly question it may seem, but there are multiheaded desktops. Do Google bots count as Linux?
Therefore, web statistics are almost the worst way of measuring market share.
Quoting:Do you really think Chinese people do read English webpages?My filesystem speed article is more likely to be translated into something Slavic or Scandanavian. Maybe once a month I see a translation into Chinese, and that comes from google.tw, never from google.cn or Baidu.
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The netbook boom has had two effects. Some manufacturers (Dell, HP, Asus) have expanded their Linux offerings on desktops, nettops, and/or full sized notebooks. Some businesses have bought these systems now that Linux on the desktop doesn't require extra labor compared to Windows on the desktop. In the past the labor cost would have more than offset the price of Windows. Linux can now be sold on price as well as security.
I agree that it will be an evolutionary not a revolutionary process. That's fine. So long as consumers and businesses alike know they have choices Microsoft's monopoly will continue to erode. Competition is a good thing.