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Paul Ferris: Pundit for a Day, 2005

Posted by PaulFerris on · 10 comments
LXer; By Paul (FeriCyde) Ferris
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It's that time of year, folks. Industry pundits are out shooting off predictions like so many mortars and who knows where they will land? Paul Ferris can predict with the best of them, but here's some advice: Keep hands and Feet away...




FeriCyde Chat
It's here again -- January Fools day. Time to make predictions about the coming year. These techno-forecasting articles have fallen off a bit lately I've noticed. I figure it's time someone took up the slack and that someone should be FeriCyde. Not because I really know what's coming -- heck, I don't have any magical crystal ball. I figure I should be the one to do it because my sarcastic tendencies fill the bill and it will be somewhat more entertaining than the predictions you'll get elsewhere.

This is, after all, more fun than real work.

FeriCyde's Top 10 Predictions for 2005

Prediction 0: Larry Wall Gives Up On Perl.
Larry Wall will end the development of Perl altogether and switch to python. Thousands of Perl developers will yell obscenities in disgust and the outrage will cause a river of spam-like madness terminating in Wall's in-box. Larry will hold a press conference and explain that while it was all good while it lasted, he was "just tired of listing rubbish".

The crowd will then haul him off for a public execution. Fortunately, even though the police will have arrived three hours later, they will still manage to save Wall. When the police arrive, the angry mob will still be arguing about the method of execution. "The phrase 'There's more than one way to do it!' saved my life!" Wall will say.

Prediction 1: True Artificial Intelligence Finally Arrives.
Wall will spend several months answering email from incensed Java, TCL, php and awk developers. Eventually in a fit of disgust, he will build an auto-responder (using python of course) that real people can't tell from actual correspondence with him.

It's so good, in fact, that it becomes the first actual artificial intelligence. Wall's auto-responder, the Wall-o-Matic, is great at catching spam with a 100% hit rate, trades for him on the stock market and does all of his on-line banking, even shutting down phishing sites in the blink of an eye.

Prediction 2: The Perl Code Base Forks.
Unfortunately, the AI develops an affinity for Perl once it becomes sentient. It's so good at it that it develops a forked version, and Perl developers assume that it's Larry back at work. Whole new versions being to appear every day. They come so fast that by mid-year, Perl is up to version 150.002.

Prediction 3: GNU/Linux Gets Ported To A Surprising New Architecture.
The AI gets bored and begins experimenting with lisp and emacs, becoming the first entity to port the Linux kernel to another language, and adding yet another platform at the same time. Albeit, a strange one. Linux takes quite a while to boot under GNU/Emacs, but once it's up and running, it's surprisingly snappy.

Prediction 4: Richard Stallman Confuses Reporters.
Kernel developers and media pundits alike are baffled when Richard Stallman writes an angry tirade "Why you shouldn't use GNU/Linux under GNU/Emacs." The article incenses everyone, including Wall-a-Matic, who, for spite, rewrites GNU/Emacs in Perl and starts a competing movement to GNU. The PIG movement (Pig Isn't GNU -or- Perl Isn't GNU -- there's more than one way to name it!) enrages an enormous quantity of GNU Free Software people. Complicating matters is the new license for the text-editor based kernel called the PPL, which replaces the Artistic License. The variations for the PPL license name alone (Pig|Perl Private|Public Larry|License) add even more fuel to an already raging fire.

Prediction 5: Internet News As We Know It Crumbles!
The ensuing flame-war takes a dangerous turn, when Wall-a-Matic releases it's own source code. Soon, AI-generated flame starts to appear, filling message boards by the gigabyte. Slashdot goes down for the first time in history from a lack of storage space. Rob Malda is quoted as saying "The bandwidth charges were exponential, some pages were over a terabyte in length from just the scoring alone, but frankly, I'm just tired of GNU/Linux crashing my GNU/Emacs sessions. I'm going to rent umbrellas on the beach. See ya!"

Unfortunately, no geeks get to read this, as they're unable to read any news sites by that time. It gets posted in a local Detroit newspaper in the tech section, where it is unaccessible as a geek medium for the most part.

Prediction 6: The Power Grid In The U.S. Will Fail,
The flame-battling AIs consume so much excess energy that they bring down the power-grid in the entire U.S. The infrastructure of the Internet crumbles virtually overnight. People resort to sending snail-mail and talking to one another for communication.

Prediction 7: And No One Cares...
A lot of people discover that things like live music, nature, parties and face to face meetings are more fun than answering AIM chat messages and email. It's a bit awkward at first, but after a short time, a small geeky section of the populace comes around. The phrase, "Just what the heck is wrong with Free Beer?" becomes extremely popular. When the power grid comes back on, no one notices or cares much about the Internet. It's unusable for the most part anyway thanks to the battling AIs.

Prediction 8: The "Mega Depression" Era Dawns.
The new-found euphoria is replaced by a desperate need for employment, as a depression sinks in that makes the "Great Depression" look kind of quaint. The new depression, dubbed "The Mega Depression" is so bad that Wal-Mart is forced out of business. Once that happens, civilization as we know it, ends.

Prediction 9: Bill Gates Restores Order (And Civilization).
There's only one entity left with pockets big enough to rescue Wal-Mart. The U.S. government is bankrupt, the Swiss aren't sharing and the rest of the world is in a fog for lack of being able to check their email. Fortunately, Bill Gates has enough cash and philanthropic urge to save the day. He purchases Wal-Mart, and creates a regulatory agency for the AIs called the Redmond Registry. One of the first laws enacted by the Redmond Registry puts a cap on their network usage. This restores balance to the Internet. Suddenly, people are back to only getting a few hundred spam messages a day. Slashdot comes back on-line (Malda's fair skin didn't work out at the beach anyway). Spy-ware, viruses and Trojan horses are rampant. A lot of people continue to use Windows -- not because it's good, but because they owe it all to Bill.

There you have it. I know it may seem like a long shot, but what are industry pundits for, if not to stretch the boundaries of comprehension? I'm sure I've touched on a few points that will make some of you sore. Feel free to flame me at the email address below. Of course, don't be surprised if I have a new auto-responder in place that can handle it all ...


Paul (FeriCyde) Ferris is not an Industry pundit, he just plays one from time to time on LXer. He hopes to one day innovate "something like Ethernet", just like that Bob MetCalfe guy. He is a husband, father, Linux geek, and more. FeriCyde Chat is an LXer.com feature.

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Comments (10)

You stole my scoop!

Paul, I had thought that I was the only one to whom Larry had confided. Obviously not. I had decided to wait for Larry's official announcement. It seemed the right and courteous thing to do. Obviously, you do not believe in allowing considerations of common decency to interfere with your capitalization on an early "scoop".

As to your deductions on the matter, I can only marvel at the keenness of your mind. They are as a searchlight penetrating the mists of time, illuminating our path into the perilous, and ever-nebulous (to the rest of us) future; There is a truly "Doylean" (Yes, that's a word because I say so.) quality to them. In retrospect, of course, the predictions seem self-evident, even obvious. And yet I, feeling now much as the fictional Dr. Watson must have felt on many an occasion, was unable to reach even the first link of your brilliant (but inescapeable) chain of deductions. (I did figure out the "Perl Crowd's Gonna Be Tee'd off" part, though; I'm not stupid.)

I bow, sir, to your superior intellect.

-Steve Bergman
Steve,

Thanks for the kind words and groveling! It's this kind of praise that makes me pray to God someone actually finds a way to boot the Linux kernel under Emacs. Thanks for retrospectively examining my predictions... I think :)

Happy New Year, in any case

--FeriCyde
Paul, Paul, Paul,

if that really is you and not some bizarre PHP/MySQL AI come unhinged as it came to grips with the fact that foreign keys do not mean that someone has moved a group of Florida islands and made them suburbs of Sydney.

Frankly, I lean to the AI theory. Your predictons are ironclad, uncommonly prescient given your less than sparkly track record on these things. Easier to believe that you web server has taken over than...well...you get my drift.

To hear some perlistas (is there such a thing?), Prediction 0 has already happened, as Perl 6 is such a break from the past that it might as well be called Pythonwannabe.

As to AI, we have just come through another Presidential election. Regardless of your red/blue predilictions, it's hard to keep a straight face these days and claim that what passes for real intelligence is any better than the artificial kind.

Bill Gates as savior? That's a little hard to swallow, but, hey, why not?

I should confess, that my prediction for Gates is a little different. I think he takes all that money and one-ups Paul Allen, who helped to finance Burt Rutan and his team at Scaled Composites as they won the X prize.

My prediction: Gates finances the first manned mission to Mars. While there, the MicroNauts set up the first WIndows server and workstation ever to be completely safe against hacker attacks.

Unfortunately, that only lasts three days as a peculiar 7-celled Martian plantimal succeeds in hacking the Windows kernel, causing the machines to sing Martian nursery rhymes. Bored by the lack of challenge, the plantimals evolve into party favors.

Happy New Year!

Dinotrac

















DinoTrac wrote:

>My prediction: Gates finances the first manned mission to Mars.

Dean, as usual, I see that you cannot comment on one of my articles without taking something I said completely out into left field. I never once mentioned space, and there you are, putting Gates out as some sort of rocket scientist (heck, maybe he is, after all. It takes one to secure a Windows XP box these days...).

You space-infatuated hackers are all alike. You crouch in the dust of your shuttle simulators, nothing but the glow of the phony game console controls and the smell of rotting Flash Gordon comic books to guide your way. You pretend to push the world toward progress by talking up the whole mission to Mars gig, but we see through your little ploy. It's not progress, after all. Man didn't even make it to the moon, for that matter.

Mars? Computer Security? What do those things have to do with each other? Talk about foreign keys man, that's out there! But you won't get away with it as long as the rest of us are on to you and the whole "boldly go where no one|man has gone before" gig.

So go ahead and dream your impossible dreams! Just try and force congress to spend billions of dollars on cash on toys for Mars -- cash that would be better off spent putting computers in the libraries of today for the children in need now. Sure, supposedly Gates would fund it (he says) -- SURE. Gates will only be the start of it. Next it'll be NASA, then a special Mars shuttle (probably with cushy seats and flavored coffee for the 'Trac'd one, I'm sure). That's probably your plan -- and it all starts with these lame "predictions".

Then, one day when you can't get a decent cup of star-bucks coffee because it's all been loaned to NASA, THEN we'll see what kind of tune you're singing.

--FeriCyde

Disclaimer: Dean and I are always doing this. This is, I repeat, just more noise :)
Paul, Paul, Paul, Dear, sweet, well-meaning, addled little Paul.

Of course you said nothing about Bill Gates sending men to Mars!

That was my point!! You are failing to reach for the stars --er-- planets.

Gates is a driven man. I think he'll do anything to find a place where a Windows machine can be safe from malicious hackers. Anything, of course, except for making WIndows safe from malicious hackers...
Don't you realize? Making a computer safe from hackers by default would mean companies like SemenTech would go out of business. An entire MARKET would disappear overnight! That's cash out the door...

Here, read this: http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/internet/12/16/microsoft.spywar...

Essentially, Microsoft hasn't just created one of the biggest security boondoggles the marketplace has ever seen, it's created a huge opportunity for the above companies.

Here's one of my favorite quotes from that article: ]Microsoft's disclosure that it may eventually charge extra for Windows ]protection reflects a recognition inside the company that it could collect ]significant profits by helping to protect its customers.

Wow! How do you like them apples, eh? You screw up big time, people lose tons of cash and time using your products, and you get to charge them because you can reap "significant profits" -- Nice :)

Don't get me wrong, I'm as capitalist as they come -- but you should offer something the market needs, not liabilities, and then, after you've broken anti-trust law to ax all competition, screw your customer base for even more cash because of your lame incompetence. They claim all the time that they're all about TCO -- well, what have we got here but ... a raise in TCO!

It's dark comedy, no matter how you slice it.

--FeriCyde
"Their's always more than one blah, blah, blah...".. Nobody likes you, ferris.. : )
Schecbr, what kind of a login identifier is that!?!?

Anyway, if you look closely at the prediction, you will find many Perls of wisdom :P

Miss you guys.

--FeriCyde

I was thinking that...

I agree with the warring AI’s, and just like all of the popular movies (Matrix, I-Robot, Terminator, etc.) I think this is the year that they decide that it is in our best interest to take over the world! Though the power grid shutdown will be a minor setback, the AI’s will combine into one ominous intellectual entity, that will spawn a whole race of physical, mechanical, manifestations! And they will propagate themselves not only though the Internet, but also with trojened AOL CD’s! Wait, wait, wait…. I just realized that it’s too early in the morning for me to be typing or thinking about this stuff.. I’m sure all will return to normal in a few hours…
Schwach -- what the heck kind of name is that?!?!

Anyway, you obviously read this _before_ your morning coffee -- a serious no-no.

If I was in Columbus, I'd join you.

--FeriCyde

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