Is linuxworld dying?
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| herzeleid Aug 08, 2008 5:51 PM EDT |
Is linuxworld expo dead? Does netcraft confirm this? I've gone nearly every year since 1999, and I'm struck by the difference between this year's expo and those of the recent past. The air seemed somehow different, less buzz. It felt deflated, as it were. Even Novell, who dominated the field of vision at the show floor entrance last year, was absent from the exhibit hall, though there was a suse booth over in the dot org pavilion. Novell did send some people to select events, but the lavish, extravagant show presence seems to be a thing of the past. The floor was also noticeably less crowded, both in terms of exhibitors and observers, as compared to previous years. One upside to the decline is that I didn't see any microsoft presence this year. If they were there, they didn't blow their cover in my presence. There was certainly no microsoft booth that I could find. I've heard the same observations of declining expo activity from others who were at the show, and apparently next years expo is going to be held at the (comparatively) dinky Moscone West. Nay sayers will no doubt take this sort of thing as an indication that linux is dying. I'm thinking that, on the contrary, linux is becoming so mainstream that events like linuxworld expo are becoming less important, perhaps even irrelevant. After all, if the linux market is maturing into business as usual, why bother with the expensive semiannual pilgrimage? I have to confess, I feel a bit nostalgic, remembering back to when we were all visionary guerilla fighters, struggling to survive the attacks of the evil empire, knowing that we had a better idea. I always liked staying this town, too, but I'm beginning to wonder whether I'll be back any time soon. So what now? Are we really becoming the establishment? Perhaps in part. After all, we don't run linux to "stick it to the man" as the commercial says. We are "the man" now. I'm sure there will be more struggles ahead, but at this point we've reached critical mass, and are not going to simply fade away. While this marks the end of a fun era, it also marks the start of a new era, still in the early stages, and that can't be all bad. |
| Scott_Ruecker Aug 08, 2008 6:38 PM EDT |
Well, I cannot confirm nor deny such opinions. I can say that of the two SCaLE's I have gone too and what I have been hearing about the plans for the next one it is on the up and up, in attendance and relevance. The relevance part is just my opinion though. :-) |
| herzeleid Aug 08, 2008 6:49 PM EDT |
Well - at least SCALE is just down the road from where I work. But then again, they have a nasty habit of holding it on the weekend, and it's not that close to where I live. Nevertheless, I'll probably drop by at least one day to check out the happenings. |
| Scott_Ruecker Aug 08, 2008 8:11 PM EDT |
You can count on me being there for the third year in a row. That's right people, another Scott sighting pre-planned. The body double awaits its next use... |
| gus3 Aug 08, 2008 8:30 PM EDT |
Quoting:So what now? Are we really becoming the establishment? Perhaps in part. After all, we don't run linux to "stick it to the man" as the commercial says. We are "the man" now.I will disagree with that, on two levels. First, I don't think Linux is establishment material, yet. Linux (and Open Source in general) is for those who want something done, and done right, independently of others' opinions on how it should be done. Linux is for those who are willing to be their own "establishment." Second, it is possible to have a lively show, even if one is "the man": http://macworldexpo.com/live/20/ehall//SN991736 Has anyone ever heard someone say MacWorld Expo was "a dud"? I can't say that I have. |
| Steven_Rosenber Aug 08, 2008 8:34 PM EDT |
I don't think saying "Linux has gone mainstream" is any kind of explanation for poor trade-show attendance. I have no idea what the reasons are, but trying to add a positive spin to the situation doesn't really help. What would help is figuring out why potential vendors and attendees stayed away. |
| Scott_Ruecker Aug 08, 2008 9:13 PM EDT |
Two words; the economy. |
| gus3 Aug 08, 2008 9:57 PM EDT |
And maybe three letters, but I'll leave it up to you to go to Groklaw and find out what they are. /not gonna give them free publicity here |
| herzeleid Aug 08, 2008 9:59 PM EDT |
> I don't think saying "Linux has gone mainstream" is any kind of explanation for poor trade-show attendance. I've talked to some of the vendors who didn't go, and they are doing a healthy linux business. The story from them is that they don't see enough return on investment to justify going. It's not about the revolution anymore, it's just plain old business. Of course, if you have a better explanation, feel free to set me straight. |
| lcafiero Aug 09, 2008 7:47 AM EDT |
Scott chose the right two words. As an aside, I picked up in various conversations -- those I was involved in and those I was near enough to hear -- that one of the reasons some folks have bailed on LinuxWorld has to do more with IDG raising rates and gouging vendors for booths (my words, not those of whom I conversed with, but that was the implication), so even larger vendors are starting to tell IDG to take a hike. Worth investigating? Maybe. |
| herzeleid Aug 09, 2008 10:36 AM EDT |
Quoting:Scott chose the right two words.I think that when the economy is tight, there is inevitably more interest in maximizing the bang for the IT buck and linux gets closer attention. OTOH the price of gas definitely has an effect on travel budgets. The companies I've talked to who didn't go have solid linux business, and lots of plans for the future, so their lack of show presence in no way reflects a waning of their interest. These companies now do enough linux business through the normal business channels that this show wasn't all that critical, and the recently increased costs convinced them not to bother. The IDG price gouging angle is interesting, and would make perfect sense. Yes, if IDG figured they'd raise the prices on everybody and rake in some more dough, that would provide a strong disincentive to attend, at a time when linux vendors are finding more customers through other, more conventional channels. If that's true, then at the very least, IDG has wounded the goose that laid the golden egg. It will be interesting to compare attendance at non-IDG linux events henceforth. |
| Scott_Ruecker Aug 09, 2008 2:40 PM EDT |
I will say this, if I had had to pay the price it would have cost me to get in if I was not 'Press'. It would have made the trip much harder to make. |
| hkwint Aug 11, 2008 6:03 AM EDT |
Well, attendance at FOSDEM was not lower than normal it seemed (nobody said something like that). That was in Bruxelles a few months ago. Probably, business to business is done by phone or video-conferencing if meeting in real life is too expensive. Moreover, the talks - at least of FOSDEM - are available via internet; but I don't know the situation for LinuxWorld. If I had to pay for FOSDEM or T-Dose (which are developer meetings, not business meetings) I might not go either. However, I guess most attendees of LinuxWorld have their flight / entrance tickets paid by their respective employers. If I were such a company, I'd indeed say: Just call Novell or go straight to their office. Or take a better look at their website and fax/mail them. Fuel prices are not dropping soon I guess (only a little). Maybe somebody in the US will finally get the idea to build some high speed railway, like they have in Japan and a few over here, and of which they are currently building in several more places in the EU? |
| NoDough Aug 11, 2008 7:24 AM EDT |
>> Maybe somebody in the US will finally get the idea to build some high speed railway... We have a couple of small runs linking large, nearby cities. The are underutilized, the fares are horribly expensive, and the taxpayers are stuck for the losses. So far, they've been a terrible solution in the U.S. |
| TxtEdMacs Aug 11, 2008 8:12 AM EDT |
Calculate it the same way they do for airlines and that loss might be a break even to a profit. Note Airlines do not really pay the real costs (plus taxes for owning airports), much critical infrastructure supporting flight schedules is paid by the tax payers (oh, you didn't notice?) weather prediction and flight control are government paid operations. What about highways, other than toll roads? Do they really pay for themselves? There are trade offs and investment in roads favors a less efficient mode of transportation. Put them on the same basis where rights of way are essentially government property that are not on the tax rolls and despite the fuel and licensing taxes many times they fall short of supporting the system. However, users such as trucking companies and busing make money. How? No humor intended or present. |
| NoDough Aug 11, 2008 9:04 AM EDT |
Txt, I'm not at all against government supplying infrastructure when it works. The US has a long record of making this work. The Pony Express, early railroads, national highway system, US post office, even privately held services such as electric, water, telegraph and telephone couldn't have been successful with government help building the infrastructure. (Yes, I know that the extent of both government involvement and success can be argued. But, by and large, these things work[ed].) But when something is clearly a miserable failure, bury it and move on. |
| TxtEdMacs Aug 11, 2008 9:35 AM EDT |
A very small test to see if you know what you are talking about: why was Amtrak created? Do you even know the year? |
| NoDough Aug 11, 2008 10:12 AM EDT |
Txt, Your post smacks of elitism, but I'll give you the benefit of a doubt. I believe they started in the 70s. It's my opinion that they were created to give the railroads, which were losing their freight business to the trucking industry, something to keep them occupied. I have not researched this, nor do I intend to. It doesn't matter. What happened three decades ago cannot justify artificially propping up a failed business model. |
| TxtEdMacs Aug 11, 2008 12:24 PM EDT |
Close, it bailed out the railroads. However, that is now hotly denied by the ignorant. By the way the freight business, has changed with mega lines that even turn away business. Back to the passenger operations, Amtrak inherited junk and was always underfunded. If the airline industry were treated the same way they too would have been dead long ago. Trucks too. Busy. |
| herzeleid Aug 13, 2008 7:19 PM EDT |
Quoting:I don't think saying "Linux has gone mainstream" is any kind of explanation for poor trade-show attendance.For your edification, I happened to spot this over at lwn. It seems I'm not alone in thinking that the declining linuxworld attendance is a sign that linux has gone mainstream. http://news.cnet.com/8301-10787_3-10009252-60.html |
| tuxchick Aug 13, 2008 7:58 PM EDT |
Hmm, I don't think so. More mainstream should equal more interest. My guess it's is a number of factors- the cost of attending for both vendors and guests being the biggest one. Another one is a plain old dull show- remember the glory days of Comdex? You got a real show when you went to that- pizzazz and glitter and fun. A bunch of mopes trying to sell Linux-based guff is not very exciting. Boring booths and talking heads- yawn. It takes some showmanship to draw crowds. |
| gus3 Aug 13, 2008 8:32 PM EDT |
LWE-San Jose 2000 had a User Friendly booth. Linux- and Open Source-friendly, but not -centered. ("A talk on... open sores?" "Open Source, you idiot, Open Source!") |
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