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Beginning of the end for Microsoft?
There are a couple of moments in Microsoft's long history that will be remembered as when the company changed forever. One of those is, naturally, when Bill Gates handed over the reins. The other will be the day that Ray Ozzie, Microsoft's chief software architect, leaves the building. |
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Comments (8)
I agree, I think the writing is on the wall for Microsoft. Their heyday is over and its not coming back..ever.
Quoting:Articles have appeared that suggest that Microsoft is now dependent on only two items of software (its OS and Office) for current cash flowThose are the only consistent revenue items they've had, ever since the IBM PC market took hold.
With the exception of the Xbox, every attempt to diversify their market portfolio has been too little, too late. After almost 9 years on the market in the USA, I doubt the Xbox is going away any time soon.
But even that was following a trail that someone else blazed. A truly new idea has never come from Microsoft. Not the Zune, not Bob, not Windows, not DOS, and not even the practices of destroying competitors and hiding profits in outside investments.
Uhm, yes, Microsoft stopped being interesting. Whenever I see one of their product announcements on my favourite national IT-website, it has far less views and discussion then products of the 'hot' companies. I think most LXer readers have seen this coming for years.
It was in 2002 or so, the first time I read the parable of the lorry Microsoft being in front of the sportscar Linux, and saying "hey, we're still in front of you!"
Back then I thought it was exaggerated, now I know it's true.
Speaking about the more popular companiest: I was reading some boombustblog, and the interesting thing Reggie told, was Apple is not an interesting share to buy / hold anymore. They will suffer from margin compression, so probably they're at their peak right now. They only earn money by one product (iPhone I assume?), and they can't match the supply of iPad's with the demand.
Now today, it's kind of hard to imagine IT websites without Apple. I thought.
Untill I read that other announcement today. "The last walkman made by Sony". When I was young, life without walkman's and discmans was not imaginable. However, Sony kept pushing their proprietary formats, not wanting to join the standards 'shared by other manufacturers'. They had ATRAC, MiniDisc and more recently CompactFlash. And where did it left them? Did it bring them any good?
Say what you want, but Microsoft probably sees that too, and they're trying to be a 'little' more compatible. "Hybrid environments" and such, it's all a pretty modern way to say "Hey, we're no Sony!" Moreover, MS can still ditch everything which is not core-business, which would probably buy them an extra decade.
What we see here, is Microsofts public downgrade from "Hot! Interesting! Modern, shiny new technology! Tell me all about their new products!" to: "Hmm, so what? Can I continue with my cereals now, while watching the election of Tiger's most attractive bed-partner?"
Speaking about the more popular companiest: I was reading some boombustblog, and the interesting thing Reggie told, was Apple is not an interesting share to buy / hold anymore. They will suffer from margin compression, so probably they're at their peak right now. They only earn money by one product (iPhone I assume?), and they can't match the supply of iPad's with the demand.
Now today, it's kind of hard to imagine IT websites without Apple. I thought.
Untill I read that other announcement today. "The last walkman made by Sony". When I was young, life without walkman's and discmans was not imaginable. However, Sony kept pushing their proprietary formats, not wanting to join the standards 'shared by other manufacturers'. They had ATRAC, MiniDisc and more recently CompactFlash. And where did it left them? Did it bring them any good?
Say what you want, but Microsoft probably sees that too, and they're trying to be a 'little' more compatible. "Hybrid environments" and such, it's all a pretty modern way to say "Hey, we're no Sony!" Moreover, MS can still ditch everything which is not core-business, which would probably buy them an extra decade.
What we see here, is Microsofts public downgrade from "Hot! Interesting! Modern, shiny new technology! Tell me all about their new products!" to: "Hmm, so what? Can I continue with my cereals now, while watching the election of Tiger's most attractive bed-partner?"
@hkwint......expect my lawyers.......LOL in spades. I read your comment which was very interesting and got to your last paragraph, then tried to muffle the laughter. Oh well put !! I'm just outa bed here in my study with a cup of tea and my dearly beloved in the next room is still snoozing, and I am trying not to wake her up and you are doing your best to do the opposite. Make that two lawyer teams..... LOL again. :-)
Quoting:Microsoft is either in trouble or at least in the initial stages of trouble.
I think that's what we are seeing, the loss of talented people, the reliance more and more on the very thing Bill Gates said he disliked... patents, and the obvious, way more than in the past, fact that they are not leading in innovation.
> they are not leading in innovation.
What makes it different now relative to say 10 years ago is that there is a transformation in hardware. As we move away from desktops and laptops, the Windows monopoly fails to be relevant.
Not that there is anything at all surprising about this development. I and many others have been saying the same thing for years. Those who argue that Microsoft will always be the dominant force in software are becoming harder and harder to come by.
What makes it different now relative to say 10 years ago is that there is a transformation in hardware. As we move away from desktops and laptops, the Windows monopoly fails to be relevant.
Not that there is anything at all surprising about this development. I and many others have been saying the same thing for years. Those who argue that Microsoft will always be the dominant force in software are becoming harder and harder to come by.
Slightly off topic, but related. There's a TV program running over here at the moment, it's about the Internet and how it changed our lives. They have been interviewing lots of different players, and one of them was Bill Gates, which I find quite interesting, as the Internet rather caught Bill and his company by surprise. You wouldn't know that from the way he was talking in the interviews, though.
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Articles have appeared that suggest that Microsoft is now dependent on only two items of software (its OS and Office) for current cash flow; that innovation and bleeding edge have all gone; that the firm is moving to a patent infringement lawsuit mode rather than a trailblazing software mode; that a major investment advisory firm has indicated that MSFT is no longer a blue-chip investment that is increasing its value; Ballmer doesn't get his normal yearly bonus; that Microsoft is now past maturity and is an "old and greying firm" whose only move is downwards, and and so on. And now this extra straw blows in the wind.
Oh for sure, I don't expect to see headlines like "Microsoft collapses and is bought out by.....etc." in any way soon; but the indicators all seem to be saying the same thing.......Microsoft is either in trouble or at least in the initial stages of trouble. As one comment very cogently put it: In 1995, if you had said GMH would collapse into bankruptcy in 15 years, people would have placed you in a location for the mentally ill........but it did happen. I wonder if we are now watching the same thing being played out in the world of computer software.