Beginning of the end for M$ ?
|
| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| montezuma Apr 11, 2013 7:00 PM EDT |
I think it is now becoming clear that Ballmer's big Windows 8 push may be failing.
Surface tablets are not selling well either: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/microsoft-s-surface... Perhaps Ballmer has finally hit the wall (rather than a chair he threw) |
| Ridcully Apr 12, 2013 7:58 AM EDT |
What annoys me is that I cannot for the life of me, remember the topic that a computing friend and myself were discussing with respect to Microsoft - it might have been the move by Nokia to throw out Symbian and put in Windows in their mobile phones......But I do recall that two years ago, he and I agreed that historians of the future would draw an arbitrary line at that point and say: "This is the spot that marked the beginning of the decline and fall of the Microsoft Empire." Everything from that point onwards, including this PC sales slump, are now simply indicators of the steadily hastening process. Oh, I don't think that Microsoft is just going to vanish, thanks to its enormous "war-chest" of capital. The collapse will be a process of slow decay and I am afraid that in its attempts to remain viable, Microsoft will also destroy some other companies with it, probably using patents - but Nokia's example is the other way Microsoft's dead hand can ruin a viable company. A major problem for Microsoft is what I would call its "overall concept of personal computers". Microsoft has always thought "big": big and powerful processors, more speed, huge software demands with enormous complexity, vendor lockin, static desktop workstations that resemble the Starship Enterprise Bridge command centre......but that really isn't what the smart phone, pad users of today are after which seem to be small and hand held devices, simplicity in the physical attributes of the device, mobility, flexibility, freedom to choose how they will use their equipment, minimum power demands and sharing. Microsoft's traditional business model is irrelevant to this new generation of computer users and I also recall that two years ago my friend and I agreed that the development train to the IT future was already three or four stations down the line with Microsoft left standing at the station. Can Redmond catch up ? In my books, I'd rate it as very doubtful. There is still the enormous locked in business user base for Office, but little by little this is dwindling and the smartphone/pad/tablet crowd of today see little use for Windows and are discovering that there are free alternatives to Office. The problem for Microsoft is essentially that there has been a paradigm shift in computing which has caught the company totally unprepared. Apart from its cash cows of the OS and Office, what really now has it to offer that is startling, new, innovative and competitive in a completely different computer market that is already dominated by other major players ? Moreover, what can a new version of Office really do better than an older one, as far as a business requirement is concerned ? It simply isn' t cost effective. Brutal economics are now coming into play. Win8 was an attempt by Microsoft to enter the smartphone/pad/tablet arena, but it simply isn't working. It is worth noting that rejection of Win8 seems to be so intense in at least some parts of Australia that a major computer retail store is putting its usual computer adverts in the Sunday papers and advertising that they run Windows 8......BUT......normally, the colour adverts would show a series of computer models with the opening screen of the current version of Windows displayed vividly and that was what was done for Windows 7......For the Win 8 adverts, a blank blue screen is shown on each computer. I have been told by a salesman at the same firm that customers are walking in, taking one look at the Win 8 screens and walking out again. Win 8 just isn't cutting the mustard. Just my 2c worth..... :-) |
| JaseP Apr 12, 2013 2:02 PM EDT |
Keep in mind that most all of PCs will be shipping with Win8... eventually, anyway. MS is still king of the hill, ... It's just a smaller hill now. What's killing them is the expanding market share of mobile devices. And guess what?!?! Linux dominates there (OK,... Android,... but that's still Linux). MS's cash cow is becoming a cash goat. They just have to find a way to make the goat's milk more expensive, ... |
| Fettoosh Apr 12, 2013 3:28 PM EDT |
Quoting:MS's cash cow is becoming a cash goat And the goat is getting old and stale and won't be producing much milk soon enough. That is why MS is doing more diversification than before by investing in hardware. e.g. Nokia, Dell. etc... and may be in fiber optics networking to follow Google's footsteps. They see what is happening and coming and they are preparing for it. Might not succeed, but they are not dummies with lots of dough. |
| caitlyn Apr 12, 2013 4:53 PM EDT |
They are also trying to sue their competitors and collect money through litigation. Hopefully that will go over as well as it did for SCO. (Yes, I know the specific claims and details of the cases are very different.) |
| JaseP Apr 12, 2013 5:10 PM EDT |
@ caitlyn; I'm not convinced their litigation strategy is making them money, so much as not bleeding it out through an open wound... They had they had the potential to capitalize on their mobile OS position, and pretty much blew their lead with every decision. |
| gus3 Apr 12, 2013 5:20 PM EDT |
@Ridcully, the Windows Vista debacle is the point when people really woke up and realized they didn't have to run out and get the latest M$ dreck, just because it had that name and logo on it. It was a full-on consumer revolt against Vista that led to the extension of support for Windows XP. The DRM in Vista was so pervasive, it actually cost a lot more money for the electricity to run a computer with Vista than XP, and it was slower to accomplish the same tasks. Windows 7 was their course-correction from that disaster. And now Windows 8... Some people (and companies) never learn. |
| Ridcully Apr 12, 2013 6:41 PM EDT |
@caitlyn.....I seem to recall reading something within the past year that the move by a company to use litigation as a tool for both income and prevention of open competition is also a straw in the wind as regards the oncoming decay and collapse of a business company. I believe from observations Microsoft has begun to do both. The problem here for Microsoft however, is that there are strong signs that the USA court system is becoming.....ummmm..."fed up ?" ..... with this abuse and misuse of the legal process. Businesses such as Microsoft are no longer viewing the courts as a place of last resort where true wrongs can be redressed. Instead the courts are considered a standard and first step business technique to destroy a competitor rather than competing with innovation and progress in an open market place. We can all see it and the consumers aren't, despite what these big companies think, complete mugs. They are sick of it as well and are now aware that the millions being spent on lawyers could have been poured into research, innovation and cheaper devices. Articles are now appearing which describe the continuous circles of patent and counter-patent law suits between two IT companies, the fact that there is no apparent desire on either side to cease the stupidity and lastly that the only legal activity is not to resolve the problem quickly, but instead to add more and more patent suits into an ever-increasing legal morass. And of course that brings up the entire gamut of software patents and patents that should never have been given because of both obviousness and prior art. It could even be possible that courts will begin to refuse to accept IT patent lawsuits unless they are very strictly limited to a single complaint so that just one item can be decided once and for all. IT businesses are now killing the golden goose. @Gus3......cynically, Win8 has been called Vista Mk II. I have never used a Vista machine, but I am very aware of comments made that it was so utterly stacked with DRM that the OS almost became unusable in some circumstances. I must admit that I had a wry chuckle over the removal of the Win8 screen from the computers in the Australian computer retail adverts.....all I could see was the famous BSOD.....and in one sense, Win8 has, I think, become Microsoft's own BSOD. |
| caitlyn Apr 12, 2013 6:51 PM EDT |
@JaseP: Microsoft is collecting royalties on the vast majority of Android devices out there, simply by using the threat of lawsuit and endless, expensive litigation. It's a legal protection racket. I'm willing to bet there is some angle with the current suit to try and get the EU to either make Android more expensive than Windows on those devices or to collect some sort of additional payment from Google on those devices. |
| BernardSwiss Apr 12, 2013 7:03 PM EDT |
Quoting: the Windows Vista debacle is the point when people really woke up and realized they didn't have to run out and get the latest M$ dreck, just because it had that name and logo on it. It was a full-on consumer revolt against Vista that led to the extension of support for Windows XP. The DRM in Vista was so pervasive, it actually cost a lot more money for the electricity to run a computer with Vista than XP, and it was slower to accomplish the same tasks. Windows 7 was their course-correction from that disaster. I wouldn't count Microsoft out just yet -- but they are noticeably thrashing and flailing, like an inept swimmer. (It doesn't help that their main tactic from the beginning (DOS days) has always been to prevent real competition.) So the real test will be Windows 9 ? |
| Ridcully Apr 12, 2013 9:54 PM EDT |
@BernardSwiss....Windows 9 is an intriguing idea, if it is happening. But honestly, my perception is that at last Microsoft is hitting a seriously big business wall where the commercial consumers are simply looking at straight forward economics, not the idea of the latest and greatest "and we must upgrade" - that was the ethos in the late 1990's and early 2000's, but that no longer exists. There is a huge number of business entities in Australia (including one very large IT, white goods and furniture outlet) which are STILL using WinXP simply because it does everything they want. They see no gains in transferring across to Win7 and would have to be forced to leave the low costs and familiarity of WinXP - let alone the unpleasant costs of transferring all the firm's business data......and Win8 would be even less attractive. I strongly suspect that when these firms do upgrade, it will be to Win7 and those firms already on Win7 will run that software for as long as possible. If duplicated world wide (and sensible business practice is sensible business practice no matter where) I think it means a large reduction in the flow from Redmond's two cash cows. It's only real hope is to con the mass consumer into the purchase of a PC with Win8 or Win9 on it....and as we can all see, the PC mountain is now becoming a hill and the cash run-off is getting predictably smaller. Whatever, interesting times ahead.......and will Win9 revert to traditional desktop I wonder ? |
| BernardSwiss Apr 12, 2013 11:14 PM EDT |
I wasn't thinking of Windows 9 as an opportunity for Microsoft to revert the user interface to a more traditional desktop UI, but of the MS tradition of putting out a product more than once, before they "get it right". Like Win '95, Win Me, and Widows Vista, Windows 8 may come to be seen as just another instance of Microsoft putting out a beta release, but presenting it as a finished product (and charging accordingly). If Windows 9 is significantly better, the previous "beta" / Windows 8 will become remembered as just one of those MS idiosyncrasies, not really held against Microsoft, sort of like the even-numbered Star Trek movies. |
| Ridcully Apr 13, 2013 2:02 AM EDT |
@BernardSwiss.....you could be right, but the solid rejection of the Win8 interface makes me suspect that this time, it is going to be just that more difficult to try to "pull another WinMe or Vista" beta-rabbit out of the hat. However, my thanks for giving me such an interesting and oblique take on the matter. Later Update. Just for interest, I did a search on Windows 9 and got this: http://blogs.computerworld.com/windows/21950/windows-blue-sh... If this is correct, my personal take would be that Microsoft is continuing to deepen the pit they are in. I cannot think of a better workplace than the present conventional (desktop/laptop) DE as typified by KDE, Gnome, Xfce, etc. etc. and of course, Win7. Microsoft by this move would be trying to force people to use their (Redmond's) concepts on the desktop and those concepts are targetting the mobile pad/smartphone area and are simply not suitable for the DE. Additionally, the consumers are not taking to Win8 (or will take to Win9 if this is correct) in any great numbers....It leaves me really puzzled as to what on earth is happening in Redmond's mind....Wiser heads than mine are needed for this one as I am sure I may be missing something here. It just doesn't make sense. I'd have thought Redmond would separate the two.......a conventional DE for business and power users requiring the standard desktop/laptop scenario, and a Win8 style DE for the "mobile" consumers. That's probably tooooo simplistic. |
| theboomboomcars Apr 13, 2013 8:00 PM EDT |
I had heard that win9 is going to be called windows blue, and it is moving to a subscription model like office 2013, so MS is going to need less sales to generate the same revenue. So rather than try to develop an OS that people want, they are trying to figure out how to make more money from their customers. This may also explain why dell is flirting with linux again. |
| DrGeoffrey Apr 13, 2013 8:43 PM EDT |
Windows Blue is a fitting name. Could that be the color of the Windows faithful when they finally notice they're being scr**ed again? |
| Ridcully Apr 13, 2013 11:50 PM EDT |
@theboomboomcars.......I was under the impression that Microsoft "tried" to make Office 2013 a frozen subscription model capable of running on one and only one computer - so that if that computer died, you had to buy another copy of Office. There was so much outrage that Redmond backed off and as far as I was aware, had returned to the standard sales model with transferrable rights. I think you would also get howls of outrage if "Win9" or whatever tried the subscription model on again. But I tend to agree with you....Microsoft is complicating its offerings so much in its threshing around to try to "scr$w" the customers for as much cash as possible out of diminishing PC sales, that a company like Dell would probably look on the simplicity of the Linux distribution model with a great deal of interest.....But it's also a matter of getting the customers to jump into the Linux pool and so far, that has been difficult to attain for the conventional desktop/laptop, even though Linux has taken the mobile/pad area by storm. |
| number6x Apr 14, 2013 10:38 AM EDT |
@Ridcully, I think the point was when Microsoft did not deliver the Windows OS on time for the Intel Itanium. Linux was considered the low cost option for print and web servers by the IT industry. Only the scientific community had embraced Linux for mission critical applications. The entire VAR and OEM channel was waiting for low cost Windows to take over the server market running on Itanium. Linux was ready before the first Itanium shipped, but was not taken seriously by the industry. Several higher price Unix variants were ready as well. Windows was late to the party. This drove a wedge between Intel and Microsoft which has continued to widen. Intel un-hitched its wagon from the MS horse and has charted its own path. Many other vendors started down the road of un-hitching as well. When a bunch of scruffy volunteer programmers showed they could do better than microsoft, the industry started looking at Linux differently. I drew the line with the Itanium release and failure. |
| theboomboomcars Apr 14, 2013 11:24 PM EDT |
@Ridcully It would make sense for them to abandon that model, it would be a PR disaster, and MS doesn't need another huge blunder like that, or they do ;). My work "upgraded"to Office 2013. It is a huge memory hog, One of the spread sheets I use is really big, with Office 2010 it used 800mb of ram, now it is using 1.5gb. My work computer has 8gb of ram, when running Office 2010, I never had any memory problems, now I am ruuning out of ram frequently, and I have even run out of swap, or whatever they call it in the windows world. Nothing like having a 2nd generation i7 with 8gb of ram grind to a halt hen only using office. |
| BernardSwiss Apr 15, 2013 3:03 AM EDT |
@ theboomboomcars OMG! There's actually a reason for ordinary users to want 8 GB of RAM? (Or even more than that?) Damn! Using Linux/FOSS has really spoiled me. (And no wonder I can get such a great deal on a very well cared-for ThinkPad, only 2 or 3 years old). |
| Ridcully Apr 15, 2013 3:56 AM EDT |
@theboomboomcars.....Y'know what ? I keep a copy of Office 2003 on my computer, running in Crossover Office....And it is there PURELY as a test bed for any document I have to send out in .doc format. I have never felt the slightest need to upgrade (or from my perception, degrade) my Office experience since I simply have little use for it. I don't send .docx material and any received documents in that rather contemptible format (Hi there ISO), can be opened in LibreOffice. I'm running on just under 4Gig of RAM and have never, never felt the need for more. Just as a quick digression though, I am looking at purchasing a solid state hard disk drive and I am told that the speed increase is dramatic. More expensive, but an enormous increase in overall system speeds. Hey.....while I have you to myself, Ridcully of course, comes from the irrascible Arch Chancellor of Unseen University in the Disk World series by Terry Pratchett - I like to think I am equally "curmudgeonous" - unfortunately, my daughter keeps puncturing my balloon...LOL......May I ask just where on earth did you select your pen-name from.....No offence taken if you wish to keep it to yourself....but it conjures up such incredible ideas....mostly carnival and dodgems. |
| jacog Apr 15, 2013 4:38 AM EDT |
Bernardswiss - I have 16GB of RAM in mine. Do I *need* that much? Probably not, but it is great being able to edit large images and videos without much disk-swapping going on. |
| cr Apr 15, 2013 10:10 AM EDT |
MS: Sinking Under Its Own W8 |
| Fettoosh Apr 15, 2013 10:19 AM EDT |
History lesson : Empires, Tyrants, Dictators, Monopolies: No matter how high they fly, they must come down, eventually. |
| gus3 Apr 15, 2013 12:19 PM EDT |
Or, as I like to put it: Take-off is optional. Landing is not. |
| Fettoosh Apr 15, 2013 1:32 PM EDT |
You must be a pilot Gus. To the layman, it is more know as "what goes up, must come down." |
| gus3 Apr 15, 2013 1:52 PM EDT |
After all the flying I did while living in Silicon Valley, I figured out how to account for what is voluntary and what is not. |
| Fettoosh Apr 15, 2013 2:19 PM EDT |
I only believe you did because you still posting and I don't believe in ghosts. :-) |
| gus3 Apr 15, 2013 2:21 PM EDT |
That's fine, the ghosts still believe in you. |
| JaseP Apr 15, 2013 3:14 PM EDT |
@ caitlyn; I'm not disputing the presence of the protection racket. I'm disputing the fact that it can be a profitable enterprise for a Fortune 500 company to shake down the competition and not have an alternative and viable offering of their own,... Despite the M$ "tax" Android devices keep flying off the shelves. I seriously doubt that M$'s protection racket even pays for the effort... If it does, the margin is a shrinking one. After B&N fought them (essentially to a draw), few very public disputes have come up... That should be telling ... |
| theboomboomcars Apr 15, 2013 10:57 PM EDT |
Ridcully, On my home laptop I am running Chakra Linux on an ssd, with 8gb, with a 4gb temp in ram. The speed is nice, when you get the chance do take the plunge for an ssd. Hold on to that 2003 for as long as you can, Office is falling down a very steep hill, getting more and more terrible with each release. I am glad I can use libre office, open office, calligra, etc at home. Unfortunately one of our execs at work is an ex-microsoftie so we buy into the MS dogma hook, line, and sinker. My online name came from I am a car guy, I like to name my cars. In my early 20s I got a Kia Sephia commuter car, and this did not have any soul at all to pull a name from. But being like a typical American 20 something male I put a way too powerful of a stereo in it, so we called it the boom boom car. I liked it, and since I collect cars I used theboomboomcars as my screen name. I hope this doesn't ruin the great imagery you have for my name. :) |
| Ridcully Apr 16, 2013 1:32 AM EDT |
@theboomboomcars.........Oh dear. A "boyhood picture" utterly destroyed. We have a couple of similar cars in our area, and even though I am partially deaf with hearing aids 'n all that, you can still hear the "doofa, doofa, doofa..." beat about two blocks away ......well, you can in a quiet country town. However.......it's a unique and delightful pen-name and I still insist it has elements of the carnival in it. Like it or not, you'll always conjure up dodgems in my mind. Okay......next, thankyou very, very much for your comments on the SSD. I had been told that the speed increase was considerable and that it was worth doing, even if the costs at the moment are quite a bit more than the conventional spin HDD. Also, I am very unlikely to ever dump my Office 2003. It works quite well and my need for it is minimal. It is also a conventional screen interface and that is equally important to an old crustacean such as myself. |
| theboomboomcars Apr 16, 2013 11:00 PM EDT |
You are welcome for my insights. You are most welcome to envision what ever happy memory you wish from my pen-name. I am glad that it brings fond memories for you. |
| Ridcully Apr 17, 2013 12:32 AM EDT |
And since "theboomboomcars" and myself have been talking about Office 2003, here is a very odd situation that developed this morning. I received an attached Office document from a trusted source, let's call it : sample.doc I did as I usually do, just clicked on it expecting it to open in LibreOffice, which isn't bad with Office stuff. LO told me the file was corrupted......Oh......so I then saved the file and attempted to open it with Office2003 which told me it needed a converter to do so.....And that was when the bells began to ring. I then had a look at the file with Archive and sure enough there was zipped up stuff in it and I could access that material as unformatted plain text....and that gave me the next clue......The darn thing was a .docx file and somehow the "x" had been lost. SO ....I renamed the saved file as sample.docx, and yes, it opened straight away in LO. Anyone met that before ? The person who sent it to me uses a Mac and she openly confesses she isn't as switched on as she would like and was wondering if it might be a foible of a later version of Office running in a Mac....It's hard to see how the software would let her save as a .doc file if it was actually storing it as a .docx file. It's quite odd. Again, if anyone else has met this situation before, I'd appreciate it as I will be seeing the lady on Saturday and she'd like an update on what's going on. |
Posting in this forum is limited to members of the group: [ForumMods, SITEADMINS, MEMBERS.]
Becoming a member of LXer is easy and free. Join Us!