Which distros will be next????
|
| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| vainrveenr Jun 04, 2007 2:43 PM EDT |
NOT RedHat/fedora or Ubuntu. I'm guessing a commercial player smaller even than Xandros...............such as VectorLinux? |
| Aladdin_Sane Jun 04, 2007 3:01 PM EDT |
Linspire. |
| rijelkentaurus Jun 04, 2007 3:28 PM EDT |
Mandriva? |
| Sander_Marechal Jun 04, 2007 4:09 PM EDT |
It will be a distribution that has no Free version to speak of -- and if they do it's either a limited preview of the full product, or spun off in a separate distro. It will be a distro that takes a free distro and adds proprietary value to it. Red Hat would technically make a good candidate but they'll never sign (which pisses off MS to no end :-) Most likely it will be a server distro, because that makes it easy to wrap it into an interoperability agreement. Looking over Wikipedia's list there aren't many candidates besides Suse, Red Hat and Xandros. My bet is on Oracle Unbreakable Linux (or did they sign up already)? |
| bigg Jun 04, 2007 4:39 PM EDT |
> Oracle Unbreakable Linux Larry Ellison partnering with Microsoft? We'll see a partnership between Jesus and Satan before we see that. |
| vainrveenr Jun 04, 2007 4:57 PM EDT |
It's interesting that someone mentioned Linspire.
That would be another very good guess. CNR-promoting Linspire is certainly a commercial-type distro not averse to partnering with other companies when necessary, just as it did with Canonical four months ago (see http://www.linspire.com/linspire_letter_archives.php?id=40) |
| jhansonxi Jun 04, 2007 5:30 PM EDT |
Tinfoil Hat Linux - because Microsoft is all about security :P |
| jdixon Jun 04, 2007 6:20 PM EDT |
> I'm guessing a commercial player smaller even than Xandros...............such as VectorLinux? Possible, but not that likely. VectorLinux is really to small to be worth Microsoft's time. > Linspire. Probably the best guess, yes. > Mandriva? Unless I'm mistaken, Mandriva is a French company, and therefore largely outside of Microsoft's influence. On top of that, the negative reaction to such a deal in Europe would probably be even worse than here. I'd guess Linspire, possibly followed by Ubuntu. |
| land0 Jun 04, 2007 6:50 PM EDT |
It is like watching these companies walk off a cliff. It is ironic though because they are land grabbing all of the distros that I tried and did not like. Go figure... :) |
| Igor Jun 04, 2007 7:22 PM EDT |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_conquer |
| tracyanne Jun 04, 2007 7:52 PM EDT |
Quoting:Unless I'm mistaken, Mandriva is a French company Indeed they are, with a strong presence in South America, and working a on a similar strong presence in Africa. |
| salparadise Jun 04, 2007 8:37 PM EDT |
Which distro's next? More to the point, which ones will be left after all this has finished? |
| maggrand Jun 04, 2007 10:25 PM EDT |
Its over 300 distros out there. Microsofts try to do a wackamole...And new moles comes all the time. By the way the moles wins always at the end of the game. Further Microsoft dig there own grave when they 'support' an enemy. As an investor in Microsoft i would be furious. The stock is low. Only office and XP sells well. They invest in other companys to get internet present as whith google. But they already lost nearly all the competition. Add to that the lack of innovation. An increasingly Apple. Apple currently hold around 9% of the desktop market. Linux around 6-7%. To that is Vista a big flop that ain't selling as good as expected. The one in Big Big Big trouble is the stagnation software company Microsoft...Linux and Mac is on the rise... |
| Sander_Marechal Jun 04, 2007 10:29 PM EDT |
Quoting:Larry Ellison partnering with Microsoft? We'll see a partnership between Jesus and Satan before we see that. Why not? It has everything for a suitable "partnership". - They probably each violate the other's patents (databases) - Unbreakable Linux costs money so it's easier to tax - It's users are high value, clueless corporations who would welcome a protection racket - interoperability is seen as important (manage oracle servers with Windows tools and vice-versa) - Oracle is a big name, which makes for a nice MS pitch at the EU regarding interoperability. And to top it off, Unbreakable Linux is 99.99% Red Hat, so an agreement that casts a FUD cloud over Unbreakable Linux should please Microsoft in the "guilty by association" way. I can see Linspire falling for this trap but not Canonical. Not while Mark Shuttleworth has anything to say about it. Especially not after his reaction to Novell's mailing list after the MS-Novell deal. But my bet is still Oracle. |
| bigg Jun 05, 2007 4:22 AM EDT |
@Sander: You've forgotten the very substantial dollar amount that Microsoft would have to pay Oracle. This is Larry Ellison we're talking about...just think about the reason they got into the Linux business in the first place. Either Microsoft pays them hundreds of millions of dollars, or the deal has to badly damage Red Hat, or there is no way the deal will take place. Anything can happen, but Larry Ellison is a unique individual. A partnership with Microsoft is unlikely. |
| number6x Jun 05, 2007 5:40 AM EDT |
Turbo Linux. Software Patent law in Japan is even more draconian than in the USA. Turbo Linux is big in Japan (not like Godzilla or pop rock bands, but big for Linux). Turbo is aimed at the corporate world. |
| jdixon Jun 05, 2007 5:43 AM EDT |
> More to the point, which ones will be left after all this has finished? Debian, Red Hat, and Slackware; to name three. Added: Of the list of major distro's on Distrowatch; I think PCLinuxOS, Knoppix, and Gentoo are also safe. Mandriva is probably safe, but they badly need money, so it's not as certain as I would like. |
| jdixon Jun 05, 2007 5:45 AM EDT |
> Turbo Linux. Definitely a possibility, yes. I'd almost forgotten about them, since they're so heavily oriented towards Asia. I'd add Mepis to the list of possible Microsoft targets. |
| dinotrac Jun 05, 2007 6:21 AM EDT |
>Linspire I wonder about that one. I wouldn't be shocked if they partnered with Microsoft, but I would be surprised. They, after all, are the ones who started off by tweaking Microsoft with their "Lindows" distribution. The thing I'm not sure of is whether a Microsoft deal would help them or hurt them. On the one hand, Linux purists despise them, so a Microsoft deal wouldn't matter one way or the other. On the other hand, they target individuals rather than corporations, so the patent protection wouldn't have much value. I'm not sure if there target customers would or would not be bothered by cooperation with Microsoft. I presume that people trying Linspire are looking for an alternative to Windows, which doesn't seem consistent with warm fuzzy feelings for the Redmond crew. |
| flufferbeer Jun 05, 2007 7:10 AM EDT |
@dinotrac
Don't forget that Linspire's Kevin Carmony has been actively promoting Linspire's CNR (Click N Run) to various Linux distributions for quite awhile now.
The point of this is that there IS conceivable benefit of a M$-Linspire patent-protection deal to protect and perhaps further promote its CNR. Both parties could spin off such a deal in terms of "enhanced interoperability for our customers benefit", or some similar such nonsense. One can see from the LXer discussion to two Eric Raymond pieces on LXer from late February of this year that Carmony is indeed aware of many of the key issues posted in LXer such as the M$-Xandros patent-protection deal. The two LXer stories prompting Carmony's discussion participation are 'Story: Fedora Devs Say Goodbye To Eric Raymond ' and 'Story: Carmony Says Raymond Mail Not Tied to Linspire', found respectively at http://lxer.com/module/forums/t/24722/ and http://lxer.com/module/forums/t/24730/ Would Kevin Carmony, once he reads the LXer discussion on the M$-Xandros patent-protection deal, care to respond and clarify Linspire's position here? Unless of course, such a M$-Linspire deal _IS INDEED_ in the works and he of course cannot comment upon this at the present time! |
| dinotrac Jun 05, 2007 7:12 AM EDT |
>The point of this is that there IS conceivable benefit of a M$-Linspire patent-protection deal to protect and perhaps further promote its CNR Why? Are you aware of patents that CNR violates? |
| rijelkentaurus Jun 05, 2007 7:19 AM EDT |
Quoting: This is Larry Ellison we're talking about...just think about the reason they got into the Linux business in the first place. Either Microsoft pays them hundreds of millions of dollars, or the deal has to badly damage Red Hat, or there is no way the deal will take place. I can't see them wanting to destroy Red Hat, just make them suffer a bit. Red Hat does the legwork for the OS, so they'd be taking on a bigger responsibility if Red Hat were to go down. And a company the size of Oracle would probably want money in the billions, not hundreds of millions. Oracle is not in the financial straits Novell was and has no reason to concede anything unless it gets an absolutely gigantic payout. |
| dinotrac Jun 05, 2007 7:25 AM EDT |
>Oracle is not in the financial straits Novell was and has no reason to concede anything unless it gets an absolutely gigantic payout. And Larry Ellison loves Bill Gates the way moveon.org loves George Bush. |
| bigg Jun 05, 2007 7:33 AM EDT |
> I can't see them wanting to destroy Red Hat, just make them suffer a bit. But this is Larry Ellison and Red Hat is a competitor. I don't know him personally, but I have followed him for a long time. I think his only goal in offering Unbreakable Linux was to make Red Hat go bankrupt. The day that happens, Oracle is out of the OS business. > Oracle is not in the financial straits Absolutely, and when Microsoft does these deals, it's not really a partnership. It's Microsoft and their puppy. That's why I don't see any way it will happen, at least not for less than $50 billion. The cash means a lot to Novell or Xandros but means nothing to Oracle. Both Ellison and Ballmer would be trying to get the other to bow in homage and they'd end up in a fist fight. |
| dcparris Jun 05, 2007 3:14 PM EDT |
Lining up those two is one way to get me to watch wrestling - WWF or WoW or whatever. |
| tracyanne Jun 05, 2007 4:17 PM EDT |
Linspire don't get anything from doing a deal with Microsoft, they already own licenses to Microsoft IP. It was part of the deal they brokered where they agreed to stop using the word Lindows and Microsoft stopped trying to sue them over it. Lispire got free licenses to Microsoft Media CODECs and a huge payout from Microsoft, and in retrun they stopped calling the Distribution Lindows. |
| thenixedreport Jun 05, 2007 6:46 PM EDT |
Linspire may be a named target now, but considering their partnership with Mark Shuttleworth's company, things may get more complex. My prediction: They're trying to embed themselves to the point to where there are only Redhat and Debian left (and maybe Gentoo). They are in complete panic mode right now, and after talking to somebody who has worked for Microsoft, I can see what's coming if nothing is done starting now! For starters, this year is an opportunity for Free and Open Source Software to grab a big share of the market. It needs to be 30% in this country. That's right. 30%! Otherwise, it will be a complete uphill battle in 2008! Keep in mind that this is the same corporation who contributed a mass amount of money to both major political parties in the year 2000. |
| dinotrac Jun 05, 2007 7:05 PM EDT |
>It needs to be 30% in this country. Ummm....30% of what? Web servers are already more than double that. I would bet far more than half of all large corporations have a least some free software. The only placer where free software is facing a tough slog is on the desktop, and Firefox has done all right there. |
| tracyanne Jun 05, 2007 7:32 PM EDT |
I think it's desktop Linux that needs to be aiming at 30%. |
| rijelkentaurus Jun 05, 2007 8:16 PM EDT |
Quoting: I think it's desktop Linux that needs to be aiming at 30%. Well, Mac has about 3% and it seems like everyone knows someone who's got one, so I'd say even 10% would be a real kick in the butt for MS and could easily lead to a quicker (still slow) expansion on the desktop, since there would be so many Linux users at that point. Linux just needs to reach a tipping point, whatever that might be. I think that 30% on the desktop by the end of the year is a bit of a stretch, but 5-10% is very much attainable with the help of Dell and the Tux Project, and good old word of mouth. Vista being such garbage also helps...Office 2007 being such garbage also helps...Exchange 2007 being such garbage also helps. MS is giving us all kinds of help, and Linux has gotten all kinds of publicity as a result of the Novell deal and the Xandros deal (and the Indy 500 on top of that). I think we're very close to the tipping point on the desktop right now. |
| bigg Jun 05, 2007 8:20 PM EDT |
I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but there are two pieces still missing. First, we will need (at least) tens of millions of dollars in marketing. Second, we need to get into the schools, both secondary schools and universities. Until then we can forget about big market share gains. |
| ottawalonndon Jun 05, 2007 8:42 PM EDT |
dcparris:
> Lining up those two is one way to get me
> to watch wrestling - WWF or WoW or whatever. A capitol idea! The battle of the pounds or dollars, and egos. A certain other bloggister wrote in his captioned piece 'That is right, Microsoft, just keep buying air!', that the great Microsoft can never BUY "Richard Stallman. Or Mark Shuttleworth. Or Ian Murdock. Or Patrick Volkerding. Or any of the other people who actually MAKE LINUX HAPPEN". So wrestling duels the likes of of Ellison and Ballner will rather occur instead, what? |
| Aladdin_Sane Jun 07, 2007 9:14 AM EDT |
Whoever guessed LG wins. PC World reports in http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132662-c,companynews/artic... that "Microsoft, LG Sign Linux Pact" |
| tracyanne Jun 07, 2007 2:36 PM EDT |
Microsoft's game plan is to get as many people to sign up to a patent agreement as is possible, before GPL4 takes effect. They can then claim that they are being paid for their alleged patents. If they have enough companies signed up the smaller number that gain full patent protection will either not matter, or will, hopefully, be forced out of the enterprise market, because of the perception, that Microsoft will attempt to create, that the signed up companies are safe. Microsoft will then have a continuing source of income, as Linux continues to ramp up and Microsoft products begin to fail commercially. If Linux doesn't ramp up and Microsoft products fail, they have themselves covered anyway. |
| bigg Jun 07, 2007 2:49 PM EDT |
> signed up companies are safe If Microsoft takes anyone to court and the patent claim is found to be valid, everyone loses the rights to the offending code. The only safety is from a Microsoft lawsuit, which of course might happen. The only thing GPLv3 does is encourage Microsoft to sue Linux users. > They can then claim that they are being paid for their alleged patents. Anyone licensing patents from Microsoft is in violation of GPLv2. Microsoft can say anything they want, but clearly that would be a lie, as GPLv2 and GPLv3 prohibit patent licenses. |
| dinotrac Jun 07, 2007 3:11 PM EDT |
>If Microsoft takes anyone to court and the patent claim is found to be valid, everyone loses the rights to the offending code. An interesting concept when you consider that patents are legally valid until proven otherwise. >Microsoft can say anything they want, Something they do with regularity but without regard for truth. |
| dcparris Jun 07, 2007 3:55 PM EDT |
> Something they do with regularity but without regard for truth. Kind of like some bloggers. |
| bigg Jun 07, 2007 4:30 PM EDT |
> An interesting concept when you consider that patents are legally valid until proven otherwise. What I'm referring to is the distinction between a vague claim that there is patent infringement and naming a specific patent that can be enforced against a Linux distributor. The patent itself is valid until a court or the patent office says otherwise, but Microsoft would still have to prove that the Linux code infringes that patent. |
| ottawalonndon Jun 07, 2007 4:42 PM EDT |
dcparris:
> Kind of like some bloggers. Another capitol thought there. Oh jolly, I just really love the counterpoint to bloggister Mr. dinotrac's continued discussion end-points of the last daiy or two now! Or do you have in mind another bloggister specifically do you? ;-D |
| dinotrac Jun 07, 2007 5:12 PM EDT |
>What I'm referring to is the distinction between a vague claim that there is patent infringement and naming a specific patent that can be enforced against a Linux distributor. Gotcha. Interesting thing about the Novell deal -- it did not, to my knowledge, grant any specific patent licenses that would cover GPL'd software. |
| jdixon Jun 07, 2007 6:09 PM EDT |
> I just really love the counterpoint to bloggister Mr. dinotrac's continued discussion end-points of the last daiy or two now! So Dino has a blog now? News to me. |
| dinotrac Jun 07, 2007 6:10 PM EDT |
>So Dino has a blog now? News to me. Shhh. We don't want to confuse them with facts. |
| jdixon Jun 07, 2007 6:21 PM EDT |
> We don't want to confuse them with facts. I don't think we need to resort to an indiscriminate use of facts to confuse Pete, Dino. :) |
| vainrveenr Jun 07, 2007 6:29 PM EDT |
Quoting:Or do you have in mind another bloggister specifically do you?One would imagine that the "bloggister"(?) could easily be other than the above. Say, the actual commentator of this quote? :/ Mostly good discussion the last few days on this. Might I also suggest a NEW discussion thread on the same LXer story 'Microsoft teams with Linux distributor Xandros'? Already passing the 40-comment stage, not that 40 is a comments-milestone or limit in this regard. ....better yet, how about continued discussion on one of threads following the excellent and directly-related LXer Editorial, 'Microsoft & Linux Vendors Trading in Patent Fool's Gold' at http://lxer.com/module/newswire/view/87999/index.html ?? |
| dcparris Jun 08, 2007 7:23 AM EDT |
We've seen threads longer than 60 posts around here. Discussions are what they are and go where they go. :-) |
| henke54 Jun 13, 2007 8:55 PM EDT |
>Linspire. right on..... http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/319728_msftlinspire14... |
| Aladdin_Sane Jun 14, 2007 3:37 AM EDT |
Well, I don't mean to gloat but... If we count the LG deal, we all got it wrong. But if we don't. Linspire was my WAG 10 days ago. LOL. :-) ROFLMAO. Ha! Uh oh...uh. |
| dinotrac Jun 14, 2007 4:40 AM EDT |
I must admit that I'm surprised, but, as I said earlier, not shocked. Wish they provided more details in the announcement. What's interesting to me is that the announcement seems to say nothing about protection for Linux or GPL'd software. Instead, it refers to "Linspire technologies". Wonder what that means? |
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