Notorious Shill

Story: Choosing Vendors: The Linux vs. Microsoft Red HerringTotal Replies: 20
Author Content
schestowitz

Dec 20, 2006
10:33 PM EDT
NY Times bans Microsoft analysts from Microsoft stories

,----[ Quote ] | The New York Times continues to perplex with its analyst- quoting | policy. Rather than having analysts declare their ties to clients, | the paper would prefer to quote analysts that have no experience | with a client - a protocol which seems to undermine the very point | of citing analysts. | | The Register this week started pushing the Times to explain its | quoting stance after noticing that Rob Enderle - the most quoted | technology analyst on the planet - had been blocked from commenting | on companies with which he has a financial relationship. The ban | against Enderle appeared odd, given that Times reporters continue | to cite analysts from larger firms who also have financial | relationships with the companies discussed. `----

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/12/15/nytimes_ms_ban/
swbrown

Dec 20, 2006
10:57 PM EDT
Why does someone who is consistently wrong keep getting quoted as an authority? The "Enderle Group" of one person who is an obvious shill for Microsoft.. how did the guy get in this position in the first place?
richo123

Dec 21, 2006
4:53 AM EDT
Hype.
dcparris

Dec 21, 2006
6:23 AM EDT
Probably his own hype. It's only fair to allow the guy to hype himself though - I refer to LXer as "the fastest-growing Linux news site in the world" in various discussions. I don't have proof-positive of that, ut it seems to bear some degree of truth.
bigg

Dec 21, 2006
7:20 AM EDT
He once explained why there is no economic benefit to an OEM installing Linux instead of Windows. His reasoning? Because the $85 cost of Windows is passed on to the consumer, the profit margin is unchanged.

I think he was having a deep discussion with Harry and Lloyd (Dumb and Dumber if you don't immediately recognize the reference) when he came up with that one. If you pass the $85 on to the customer, then a Linux PC costs $85 less. Takes a rocket scientist to figure it out. I haven't even heard Ballmer say something that dumb. There might be other arguments that could be made about TCO, but his argument straddles the border of mental retardation.

If that is "expertise" then there are sure a lot of experts in the world.
dinotrac

Dec 21, 2006
7:43 AM EDT
bigg -

Before you go handing out dunce caps, you may wish to measure your own head...

Based on what you wrote -- I don't care to go to the source on this one -- he made sense. He wasn't talking about benefit to the consumer, but to the OEM. If people buy the machines either way, it doesn't much matter to the seller.

That is why I don't think much of buy Dells, etc and slapping Linux on them. Why should Dell bother to sell Linux boxes if the people who want Linux buy Dells anyway?
bigg

Dec 21, 2006
8:00 AM EDT
dino:

Demand curves slope down. If you drop the price by $85, you will increase the quantity sold. You are assuming that the demand curve for PC's is flat, but I'm pretty sure that's not the case.

Specifically addressing his argument, let's do an experiment. Suppose Dell were to provide Best Buy with a group of computers, all with the exact same configuration. Best Buy puts them on the shelf next to each other, with the Linux PC selling for $500 and the Windows PC selling for $585. Which will be the better seller? If someone considers Linux to be the same as Windows, that person will always choose the Linux PC. Now put an HP brand on the Linux PC and Dell brand on the Windows PC, and for that group of consumers the HP will always win the sale. HP would be very happy, even though their profit margin is the same for each unit sold. Again, consumers may not consider Linux to be the same as Windows, but in that case the argument is just that there is no demand for Linux, which is different from the argument he made.

Or similarly, if price does not affect the demand for computers, OEM's should not complain if Microsoft sets the price of Windows at $8500. They can pass the full cost to the consumer, so their profit margin stays the same. I think it's safe to say Dell, HP and all the others would be screaming if that happened.
dinotrac

Dec 21, 2006
8:08 AM EDT
dino:

>Demand curves slope down. If you drop the price by $85, you will increase the quantity sold. You are assuming that the demand curve for PC's is flat, but I'm pretty sure that's not the case.

You need to get past econ 101, but even 101 is enough to tell you that rational companies seek to maximize profit, not volume. Even companies who go after market share do so with the idea it will, eventually, maximize profits.

The question, then, isn't whether you will increase or decrease your top line, it's whether selling those Linux pcs will generate enough sales to offset the costs of offering another product.
hchaudh1

Dec 21, 2006
8:43 AM EDT
@ schestowitz

I remember you from Digg. Nice posts and everything. Never saw you here before though. Digg's going to he** in a handbasket. I find myself going there less and less. Well, welcome.
tuxchick

Dec 21, 2006
8:47 AM EDT
The Digg overhaul is teh suck. It take forever to load and scrolling a page redlines a 3200 CPU. Nice job, Digg!
hchaudh1

Dec 21, 2006
10:09 AM EDT
Not only just the look and feel. I mean the content too. Its filled with paid diggers, astroturfers and a ton of people with the maturity of a 2 year old. I used to really like Digg. I mean the digg up/down instant gratification was great. Now it feels more like a product placement site.
jdixon

Dec 21, 2006
10:34 AM EDT
> Best Buy puts them on the shelf next to each other, with the Linux PC selling for $500 and the Windows PC selling for $585. Which will be the better seller?

The Windows machines, hands down. There are a number of reasons for this, but that's the current situation we have to deal with. Over time, as word and reputation of the Linux machine spreads, the sales would hopefully equalize, and eventually Linux would outsell Windows, but no one knows how long that would take.

> The question, then, isn't whether you will increase or decrease your top line, it's whether selling those Linux pcs will generate enough sales to offset the costs of offering another product.

Exactly. That's a business decision, and Windows is the safe choice. That will change as (and if) sales of Linux PC's through the lower tier of sellers prove there is a reliable market.
tuxchick

Dec 21, 2006
10:55 AM EDT
It's not an an either-or deal. Every consumer product under the sun sits on shelves side-by-side with any number of similar, competing brands. We keep hearing "let the market sort itself out." It's trying, but it's awfully hard when you have a giant dirty monopolist killing off the competition. Even so, Linux has had a huge impact on the market, because of its popularity and unkillable nature. Think about what the computing world would look like without Linux. Zero competitors to Microsoft or the expensive commercial Unixes, and no pressure at all to improve or offer better deals. We'd be in a pickle for sure.

Getting back to the OP, it shames me that one of my publishers publishes Enderle. Though it's a good possibility that he is not getting paid, but just getting promo space. anyway I don't worry too much about him, because people of good sense don't pay attention to him. People of bad sense we can't do much about.
rijelkentaurus

Dec 21, 2006
5:47 PM EDT
>Best Buy puts them on the shelf next to each other, with the Linux PC selling for $500 and the Windows PC selling for $585. Which will be the better seller?

I worked for the Geek Squad briefly (forgive me!). We "sold" SUSE and Linspire next to various Windows OSes, but we WERE NOT ALLOWED to suggest them to customers. We never sold the first one, although there were several there who used Linux, loved Linux, and knew that either distro would cause less problems in the hands of a noob than Windows. That Linux PC could cost $20 and the Best Buy employees would not be allowed to sell it.
dinotrac

Dec 21, 2006
5:57 PM EDT
>That Linux PC could cost $20 and the Best Buy employees would not be allowed to sell it.

That makes a certain amount of sense to me. No disrespect meant to the Geek Squad (really!), but Best Buy ain't the kind of place that can really support Linux. It's not that Linux is harder than Windows -- it isn't. In fact, in many ways, it's a whole lot easier. But...Windows has something that Linux doesn't, and that's a powerful network effect. There are just so very many Windows users that everybody can find somebody to ask a Windows question. Not so with Linux.

For a Best Buy, that's a formula for extra work and frustrated customers.
azerthoth

Dec 21, 2006
6:59 PM EDT
Bah, anyone who doesnt speek linux doesnt deserver the title geek.

I hold onto that title jealously, I worked hard for it ... that and my propeller beanie.
DarrenR114

Dec 22, 2006
5:16 AM EDT
Quoting: Bah, anyone who doesnt speek linux doesnt deserver the title geek.

I hold onto that title jealously, I worked hard for it ... that and my propeller beanie.


Miriam-Webster defines geek thusly: =============================== Main Entry: geek Pronunciation: 'gEk Function: noun Etymology: probably from English dialect geek, geck fool, from Low German geck, from Middle Low German 1 : a carnival performer often billed as a wild man whose act usually includes biting the head off a live chicken or snake ===============================

I, myself, do not relish biting the head off of any animal, living or dead.

That's why I insist that I am *not* a geek, dammit!

I'm a dweeb. ========================================= Main Entry: dweeb Pronunciation: 'dwEb Function: noun Etymology: origin unknown slang : an unattractive, insignificant, or inept person - dweeb·ish /'dwE-bish/ adjective, slang - dweeby /-bE/ adjective, slang =========================================
DarrenR114

Dec 22, 2006
5:49 AM EDT
Just a note about Best Buy - I bought my Toshiba Satellite laptop from Best Buy (there wasn't a 'Geek Squad' in that store at the time, in 2004.) I try not to make major purchases at CompUSA because MS actually has an ownership stake in the company - I was told this by an Investor Relations person back about 4 years ago.

I took a Knoppix LiveCD (version 3.3 or 3.2) with me to try on the various laptops before picking one. One of the salespeople saw me put in the CD into a couple of the laptops, so the Dept. Manager came over and informed me that they couldn't allow me to install any software onto the floor models. I explained to him what a LiveCD was and how no software was being installed. I told him I wanted to make sure that whichever laptop I chose was compatible with Linux. When he was assured that I was not installing any software on the laptops, he let me continue. I ended up choosing the Toshiba Satellite because the video drivers and sound worked great "out of the box".

When I decided on my purchase, the laptop had to be "certified" by the technical support department. As I handed the box over to be processed to the tech, I explained to him that I did not want him to activate any of the MS licenses. He told me not to worry as they simply run the machine through a series of diagnostics and don't activate the OS. That's when I noticed they were using Knoppix to do their diagnostics and troubleshooting. The tech told me that they were using Knoppix to do their virus checks and other maintenance on all machines that came through the shop. He told me that there was even a newer version of Knoppix than I was using (I hadn't been keeping up since what I had seemed to do the job just fine.) I explained to him that I intended to install Knoppix on the harddrive. He didn't know you could do that with Knoppix.

So we both came away with new knowledge that day. Once I got WiFi straightened out (I ended up using a PCMCIA WiFi card from Belkin,) I went over to his area and told him how I did it. He was entrenched in the MS world, but was looking to dig himself out.

Just a personal story that I use to remind myself that even seemingly hopeless cases sometimes simply need a small nudge where Linux is concerned. And if we stop expecting it, we might just stop seeing the Bogeyman in every shadow.

Abe

Dec 22, 2006
7:41 AM EDT
DarrenR114:

Thanks for sharing. Now think about what happens if some of us do that, not necessarily to purchase, but just to have some fun (and may be a little show off) at the electronics stores. I am sure we can open the eyes of many friends and customers who otherwise wouldn't even have heard of Linux.
hchaudh1

Dec 22, 2006
8:11 AM EDT
"maybe a little show off". Haha! God knows I have done that. The response varies from a blank stare to a smug, "We don't do Li-i-nux".
rijelkentaurus

Dec 22, 2006
9:39 AM EDT
>and may be a little show off

A live Berry Linux CD is perfect for that, with the wobbly windows and all.

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